Probabilistic Forecasting of Project Duration Using Kalman Filter and the Earned Value Method

Probabilistic Time Forecasting Using Beta Distribution

“…This profile also can be used to detect an early warning point at a specific risk level [2].It should be noted that the POS profile is inversely proportional with the EDAC profile. Literally, if the EDAC profile increases, the POS profile tends to decrease.…”

“…When the three curves combined together, they show the range of possible completion dates at a given confidence level at each data date [2].The expected completion dates and their prediction bounds, which are generated from the BFM, represented the history of probabilistic predictions for the project duration from the start of a project to the point of forecasting. The confidence limits (bounds) of the EDAC can be directly generated from the BFM in terms of the standard deviation of the project duration (σ T ) and a specified confidence interval selected by the user.…”

“…Therefore, three fundamental limitations are found in the conventional deterministic methods for schedule forecasting. First, formulas of the EVM for schedule forecasting are deterministic and provides no information about the range of possible outcomes and the probability of meeting the project objectives [1], [2]. Secondly, the schedule variance calculated from the EVM does not measure time but is expressed in a monetary unit [3].…”

“…Vandevoorde and Vanhoucke (2006) compared three different EV-based approaches for schedule forecasting and demonstrated that the earned schedule management is the only method, among those tested methods, that provides reliable forecasting results. Kim and Reinschmidt (2010) conducted another study based on the Kalman filter algorithm and earned schedule method to forecast the estimated duration at completion (EDAC) and the probability of success. The time prediction, which is generated from both the Kalman filter forecasting method, was compared to that generated from the ES forecasting model.…”

Diagnosing the success of the construction projects during the initial phases

“…For instance, Lipke et al (2009) anticipated the time and expenses of a project through application of EVM (earned value management) technic. Also, Kim and Reinschmidt (2010) provided a model to anticipate project success through the earned value management (EVM) method.  Researches who tried to develop performance and efficiency through considering different concepts as the basis.…”