Probabilistic design for reliability in electronics and photonics: Role, significance, attributes, challenges

Suhir, Ephraïm; Bensoussan, Alain; Khatibi, Golta; Nicolics, J.

doi:10.1109/irps.2015.7112749

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(24 reference statements)

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“…This concept is based on (1) the recognition that nothing is perfect, i.e., the probability of failure is never zero, on (2) the understanding that the difference between a highly reliable and an insufficiently reliable device is "merely" in the level of their never zero probability of failure, and that the device's reliability should be quantified and, if appropriate and possible, its the never-zero probability of failure should be predicted and, if possible and appropriate, even specified to assure failure free performance of the product. The following principles are critical for the application of the PDfR concept [46,84,[98][99][100][101]]:…”

Section: Predictive Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flip-Chip (FC) and Fine-Pitch-Ball-Grid-Array (FPBGA) Underfills for Application in Aerospace Electronics—Brief Review

Suhir

Ghaffarian

2018

Aerospace

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In this review, some major aspects of the current underfill technologies for flip-chip (FC) and fine-pitch-ball-grid-array (FPBGA), including chip-size packaging (CSP), are addressed, with an emphasis on applications, such as aerospace electronics, for which high reliability level is imperative. The following aspects of the FC and FPGGA technologies are considered: attributes of the FC and FPBGA structures and technologies; underfill-induced stresses; the roles of the glass transition temperature (T g) of the underfill materials; some major attributes of the lead-free solder systems with underfill; reliability-related issues; thermal fatigue of the underfilled solder joints; warpage-related issues; attributes of accelerated life testing of solder joint interconnections with underfills; and predictive modeling, both finite-element-analysis (FEA)-based and analytical ("mathematical"). It is concluded particularly that the application of the quantitative assessments of the effect of the fabrication techniques on the reliability of solder materials, when high reliability is imperative, is critical and that all the three types of research tools that an aerospace reliability engineer has at his/her disposal, should be pursued, when appropriate and possible: experimental/testing, finite-element-analysis(FEA) simulations, and the "old-fashioned" analytical ("mathematical") modeling. These two modeling techniques are based on different assumptions, and if the computed data obtained using these techniques result in the close output information, then there is a good reason to believe that this information is both accurate and trustworthy. This effort is particularly important for high-reliability FC and FPBGA applications, such as aerospace electronics, as the aerospace IC packages become more complex, and the requirements for their failure-free operations become more stringent.

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Section: Predictive Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flip-Chip (FC) and Fine-Pitch-Ball-Grid-Array (FPBGA) Underfills for Application in Aerospace Electronics—Brief Review

Suhir

Ghaffarian

2018

Aerospace

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“…The Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) model [17,18] is used to predict the probability of nonfailure of equipment and instrumentation, both its hardware and software, for the subsequent employment of the obtained result in combination with the evaluated probability of human nonfailure to assess the roles and significance of human performance and instrumentation reliability in the outcome of a mission or a situation. BAZ is the heart of the Probabilistic Design for Reliability (PDfR) concept [6].…”

Section: Boltzmann-arrhenius-zhurkov (Baz) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aerospace Mission Outcome: Predictive Modeling

Suhir

2018

Aerospace

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Summary"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man."-George Bernard Shaw, British playwright Human-in-the-Loop (HITL)-related models can be applied in various aerospace vehicular problems, when human qualifications and performance are crucial and the ability to quantify them is therefore imperative; since nobody is perfect, these evaluations should preferably be done on a probabilistic basis. The suggested models can also be used in many other areas of applied science and engineering, not even necessarily vehicular engineering, when a human encounters an extraordinary situation and should possess a sufficiently high human capacity factor (HCF) to successfully cope with an elevated mental workload (MWL). The incentive for probabilistic predictive modeling and the rationale for such modeling is addressed in this article on the layman language level. Introduction: Assuring Aerospace Mission Success and Safety in Conditions of Uncertainty"If a man will begin with certainties, he will end with doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties." -Sir Francis Bacon, English philosopher and statesman Improvements in safety in the air and in space can be achieved through better ergonomics, better work environments, and other efforts of traditional avionic psychology that directly affect human behaviors and performance. There is also a significant potential for further reduction in aerospace accidents and in assuring aerospace mission success and safety through better understanding of the role that various uncertainties play in the planner's and operator's worlds of work, when never-perfect humans, never-failure-free navigation equipment and instrumentation, never-100%-predictable response of the object of control (air-or space-craft), and uncertain and often harsh environments contribute jointly to the likelihood of a successful outcome of the aerospace mission. By employing quantifiable and measurable ways of assessing the role and significance of various critical uncertainties and treating a human in the loop (HITL) as a part-often the most crucial part-of a complex man-instrumentation-equipment-vehicle-environment system, one could improve dramatically the state of the art in assuring the success and safety of an aerospace mission or an off-normal situation. This can be done by predicting, quantifying, and, if necessary, even specifying an adequate (low enough) probability of a possible accident.Tversky and Kahneman [1] were the first who addressed various cognitive "heuristics and biases" when considering various inevitable uncertainties in human psychology in association with decision-making tasks and problems. However, being traditional psychologists, they discussed such problems from the qualitative viewpoint, while it is the importance of a quantitative approach, based on

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“…The concept of probabilistic versus deterministic systems design is well established, detailed in both standards [4] [5] and technical literature [6][7] [8]. While probabilistic design has been explored in optical communications, its use has primarily been applied at the components level [9] rather than at a systems level. Nevertheless statistical approaches have been employed for the design of multi-span systems accounting for polarization mode dispersion (PMD) or PDL, with the statistical design resulting in a linear summation of the variances.…”

Section: Table I Impact Of Provisioning With the Nonlinear Performancmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Design of Optical Transmission Systems

Chin

Charlton

Borowiec

et al. 2017

J. Lightwave Technol.

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Traditionally optical fiber nonlinearity is considered a limiting factor for transmission systems. Nevertheless from a system design perspective this nonlinearity can be exploited to minimize the impact of uncertainty on the system performance. A consequence of this is that it becomes beneficial to consider the uncertainty at the design stage, resulting in a probabilistic design, rather than conventional design approaches whereby uncertainty is added by way of system margins to a deterministic design. In this paper we conduct extensive experimental measurements to quantify the impact of uncertainty for a multi-span wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) system transmitting 100 GbE or 200 GbE as dual polarization quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK) or 16 quadrature amplitude modulation (16QAM), respectively. The impact of uncertainty in the power launched into a span is assessed for a 10×80 km link. For dual polarization (DP)-QPSK the intra-link power deviation with the probabilistic design with 100% reliability is ±1.3 dB falling to 99% reliability with ±1.6 dB. In contrast for DP-16QAM maximum deviation for 100% reliability is ±0.5 dB falling to 99% for ±0.6 dB. Following this we consider the interplay between polarization dependent loss (PDL) and fiber nonlinearity over an 8×80 km system again for both DP-QPSK and DP-16QAM. A system Q variation of less than 0.15 dB due to the interaction between PDL and fiber nonlinearity is observed for 99.9% of examined PDL values for DP-QPSK and DP-16QAM, thereby allowing the two effects to be considered separately.

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Probabilistic design for reliability in electronics and photonics: Role, significance, attributes, challenges

Cited by 12 publications

References 21 publications

Flip-Chip (FC) and Fine-Pitch-Ball-Grid-Array (FPBGA) Underfills for Application in Aerospace Electronics—Brief Review

Flip-Chip (FC) and Fine-Pitch-Ball-Grid-Array (FPBGA) Underfills for Application in Aerospace Electronics—Brief Review

Aerospace Mission Outcome: Predictive Modeling

Probabilistic Design of Optical Transmission Systems

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