Probabilistic design and analysis of building performances: Methodology and application example

Gelder, Liesje Van; Janssen, Hans; Roels, Staf

doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.04.042

Cited by 64 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Van Gelder et al [17] is used. This design approach allows quantification of the probabilistic distributions of the considered performances for each of the insulation systems.…”

Section: Probabilistic Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To that aim thus, a probabilistic approach is applied in the current paper, in which the uncertainties of the input parameters are explicitly propagated to the uncertainties of the studied performances. Probabilistic approaches are already frequently applied for energy studies [12][13] [14][15] [16], and can serve as a decision tool [17][18] [19][20] [21]. For hygrothermal analyses, however, only few studies are available [22] [23].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Interior insulation for wall retrofitting – A probabilistic analysis of energy savings and hygrothermal risks

Vereecken

Gelder

Janssen

et al. 2015

Energy and Buildings

Self Cite

117

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Interior insulation is often the only possible post-insulation technique to improve the thermal performance of single leaf masonry walls. As a result of potential damage patterns such as frost damage, interstitial condensation and mould growth however, there is often some reluctance to adopt this technique. To fully exploit the capacity for energy savings offered by interior insulation while avoiding hygrothermal failure, a reliable risk assessment is extremely important. This requires a probabilistic Postprint: Vereecken E, Van Gelder L, Janssen H, Roels S, 2015. Interior insulation for wall retrofitting -A probabilistic analysis of energy savings and hygrothermal risks. Energy and Buildings 89: 231-244. doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.12.031 approach, since the uncertainty of all influencing parameters might result in widely varying results.As, so far, no real methodology is available to select the interior insulation system and thickness resulting in the best balance between energy savings and hygrothermal risks, this paper presents a decision tool based on a Monte Carlo analysis. Additionally, the influence of the rain load and some masonry characteristics is discussed. In the study, both vapour tight interior insulation systems and a capillary active insulation system are considered. Overall, vapour tight systems tend to be preferable for structures that are resistant to frost damage. For buildings sensitive to frost damage or when wooden beam ends are present, however, capillary active systems are shifted forward.

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“…Van Gelder et al [17] is used. This design approach allows quantification of the probabilistic distributions of the considered performances for each of the insulation systems.…”

Section: Probabilistic Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interior insulation for wall retrofitting – A probabilistic analysis of energy savings and hygrothermal risks

Vereecken

Gelder

Janssen

et al. 2015

Energy and Buildings

Self Cite

117

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In the building context, performance robustness assessment approaches are broadly categorized in two types -the probabilistic approach [18][19][20], where probabilities of uncertainties are assumed to be known, and the non-probabilistic approach [21][22][23], where probabilities of uncertainties are unknown. In many cases, the designer has limited or no information about the probability of the occurrence of uncertain situations, and it is thus difficult to quantify the associated risks.…”

Section: Performance Robustness Assessment Based On Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology for performance robustness assessment of low-energy buildings using scenario analysis

2018

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• A novel methodology for performance robustness assessment is proposed.• Multi-criteria assessment is carried out using predicted performance and robustness.• The minimax regret method is used to identify robust designs.• A multi-criteria decision making strategy is implemented to select robust designs. A R T I C L E I N F O Keywords:Robust design Low-energy buildings Future scenarios Occupant behavior Performance assessment Robustness assessment Design decision making A B S T R A C T Uncertainties in building operation and external factors such as occupant behavior, climate change, policy changes etc. impact building performance, resulting in possible performance deviation during operation compared to the predicted performance in the design phase. Multiple low-energy building configurations can lead to similar optimal performance under deterministic conditions, but can have different magnitudes of performance deviation under these uncertainties. Low-energy buildings must be robust so that these uncertainties do not result in significant variations in energy use, cost and comfort. However, these uncertainties are rarely considered in the design of low-energy buildings and hence, the decision making process may result in designs that are sensitive to uncertainties and might not perform as intended. Therefore, to reduce this sensitivity, performance robustness assessment of low-energy buildings considering uncertainties should be assessed in the design phase. The probability of occurrences of these uncertainties are usually unknown and hence, scenarios are essential to assess the performance robustness of buildings. Therefore, a non-probabilistic robustness assessment methodology, based on scenario analysis, is developed to identify robust designs. Maximum performance regret calculated using the minimax regret method is used as the measure of performance robustness. In this approach, the preferred robust design is based on optimal performance and performance robustness.The proposed methodology is demonstrated using a case study with a policymaker as the decision maker. The proposed methodology can be used by designers and consultants to aid decision makers in the design phase to identify robust low-energy building designs that deliver preferred performance in the future operation.

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“…Fabi et al (2013) assessed offices' robustness to occupant behaviour and found the most robust designs were somewhat climatedependent but that thermal mass, smaller windows, and fixed shading were all beneficial. Gelder et al (2014) proposed a formal methodology for probabilistic building design, but used random variation in occupant-related uncertainties thus omitting the bi-directionality that reactive occupant behaviour models provide.…”

Section: Uncertainty and Its Mitigationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigating office performance uncertainty of occupant use of window blinds and lighting using robust design

O’Brien

Gunay

2015

Build. Simul.

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Occupant behaviour represents one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in building energy use. Energy use uncertainty is an undesirable trait with regards to sizing equipment and estimating energy use and cost. This paper presents one approach to help address this uncertainty: use of passive building measures to minimize the occurrence of discomfort so that occupants do not have to adapt as frequently in potentially energy-intensive ways. A robust design method is proposed whereby occupant behaviour models are embedded in building performance simulation to test different building designs for their probabilistic energy use and adaptive actions. To demonstrate the method, the daylighting and solar shading domain is explored. The results indicate one possible approach to reducing the impact of occupant behaviour in buildings. However, the study also shows the need for more occupant monitoring and modelling research as well as more empirical evidence to validate robust design strategies.

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Probabilistic design and analysis of building performances: Methodology and application example

Cited by 64 publications

References 20 publications

Interior insulation for wall retrofitting – A probabilistic analysis of energy savings and hygrothermal risks

Interior insulation for wall retrofitting – A probabilistic analysis of energy savings and hygrothermal risks

A methodology for performance robustness assessment of low-energy buildings using scenario analysis

Mitigating office performance uncertainty of occupant use of window blinds and lighting using robust design

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