Probabilistic assessment of rogue wave occurrence in directional wave fields

Kirezci, Cagil; Babanin, Alexander V.; Chalikov, Dmitry

doi:10.1007/s10236-021-01487-4

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 100 publications

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“…e energy is concentrated at the wave crest, and it is easy to focus energy suddenly. Many studies have shown that the occurrence probability of freak waves is closely related to the shape of the wave spectrum [34]. e occurrence probability of freak waves is inhomogeneous in space.…”

Section: Numerical Simulation Of Freak Wavementioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Numerical Simulation and Electromagnetic Scattering of Time-Invariant Freak Waves

Han

Liu

2022

International Journal of Antennas and Propagation

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The occurrence probability of freak waves is related to the sea wave spectrum. In this paper, different wave spectrums are used to simulate time-invariant three-dimensional freak waves. Freak waves that meet the international standards are generated at fixed time and location by adjusting the energy of the wavelets. We studied the occurrence probability of freak waves under the conditions of different wave spectrums, different wind speeds, and different modulation ratios and optimized the calculation speed of the model. Simulation data show that the difference in the shape of the wave spectrum affects the probability of freak waves occurrence. The model conforms to the Benjamin–Feir index (BFI), and the ratio of wave steepness to spectrum bandwidth is the key. In this paper, the Kirchhoff approximation theory is used to study the electromagnetic scattering (EM scattering) properties of freak waves on the large scale. We ideally calculate the Normalized Radar Cross-Section (NRCS) from the sea surface with freak waves, under different wind speeds and different grazing angles. The NRCS of freak waves is extremely low, and the increase of wind speed and the decrease of the grazing angle will make the detection of freak waves more difficult. The possibility of detection of freak waves is higher at high grazing angles (low incidence angles). The numerical simulations provide reference for engineering.

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Section: Numerical Simulation Of Freak Wavementioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Numerical Simulation and Electromagnetic Scattering of Time-Invariant Freak Waves

Han

Liu

2022

International Journal of Antennas and Propagation

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“…One of the most common mechanisms used to trigger freak waves is the modulation instability, which unstabilises the wave growth over the tank. The phenomenon relates to the fact that different components of a random wave may interact with each other [4]. This may eventually lead to the generation of rouge waves along the tank.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A deep learning method for the prediction of focused waves in a wave flume

Zhang

Tavakoli

Hirdaris

2023

IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng.

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Rogue waves pose a significant risk to marine safety, emphasizing the need to accurately predict their occurrence in the open ocean. However, the complexity of their evolution, which may involve nonlinear physical phenomena such as wave-wave interaction and modulation instability, makes this task challenging. Currently the reconstruction of rogue waves involves generating focused waves through the superposition of different spectral components of irregular waves that are in phase at the focusing point. Despite its effectiveness, this approach is limited. The paper introduces a deep learning method based on Long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict focused waves generated in a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flume in the time domain. The model is trained on 60% of the generated wave time series, with the remaining 40% used for both validation and testing. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can assist with the prediction of focused waves at various observation points, indicating its potential as a promising approach for predicting rogue wave behaviour in the ocean.

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“…A distinctive feature of the analysis carried out is the use of two different statistical approaches for the extreme-value analysis at short-term/range, namely the conventional time approach at a fixed point, which may however be subject to sampling variability, and the space-time approach, where the statistics refer to a given sea surface area. Indeed, the latter approach has recently been envisaged as a more reliable approach for the analysis of extreme waves (Bitner-Gregersen et al, 2021;Kirezci et al, 2021) and it was shown that the statistical moments resulting from numerical simulations can vary significantly, depending on the size of the sea surface area considered for their computation (Kokina and Dias, 2020). Since the size of the area considered also affects the value of predicted extreme wave crest heights due to the different number of waves within such area and the short-crestedness of the sea state (Fedele, 2012), our analysis also traces such dependence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since it grants fast convergence, accurate solution and high computational efficiency, it has been widely used to perform long-time nonlinear propagation of arbitrary input wave spectra and investigate the occurrence and generation mechanisms of extreme waves. Many numerical studies focusing on extreme waves under unimodal spectra have been carried out with such phase-resolving models recently (Dysthe et al, 2003;Socquet-Juglard et al, 2005;Toffoli et al, 2006;Ducrozet et al, 2007;Toffoli et al, 2010;Mori et al, 2011;Sergeeva and Slunyaev, 2013;Xiao et al, 2013;Fedele et al, 2016;Slunyaev et al, 2016;Kokorina and Slunyaev, 2019;Liu and Zhang, 2019;Bitner-Gregersen et al, 2021;Kirezci et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space-time statistics of extreme ocean waves in crossing sea states

Davison

Benetazzo²,

Barbariol³

et al. 2022

Front. Mar. Sci.

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The study of extreme ocean waves has gained considerable interest in recent years, due to their importance for offshore design and navigation safety, and several theoretical approaches have been developed for their statistical description. However, in the case of crossing seas, where two or more wave systems of different characteristics are present, a full understanding of the main physical mechanisms responsible for the occurrence of very high individual waves is still lacking. As a consequence, the prediction of extremes in such conditions currently relies on integrated parameters of the total sea state, such as the spectral wave steepness. In this study, to gain further insight into the role of the crossing wind sea and swell wave systems in producing extreme individual waves, we investigate realistic sea states during typhoon Kong-rey (2018) using an ensemble of numerical simulations obtained from a phase-resolving wave model based on the High-Order Spectral (HOS) method. The reliability of the numerical fields is assessed for the first time with stereo wave measurements of the sea surface elevation field collected from an offshore platform in the area of interest. We show that, in specific conditions, space-time extreme crest heights in crossing seas can be larger than in unimodal seas due to second-order bound wave interactions between the wind sea and the swell. To improve existing prediction capabilities, we propose a novel formulation for the wave steepness in crossing seas, which includes nonlinear effects up to the second order and accounts for the spectral parameters of the interacting wave systems.

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Probabilistic assessment of rogue wave occurrence in directional wave fields

Cited by 5 publications

References 100 publications

Study on Numerical Simulation and Electromagnetic Scattering of Time-Invariant Freak Waves

Study on Numerical Simulation and Electromagnetic Scattering of Time-Invariant Freak Waves

A deep learning method for the prediction of focused waves in a wave flume

Space-time statistics of extreme ocean waves in crossing sea states

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