Probabilistic Assessment of Available Transfer Capability Based on Monte Carlo Method With Sequential Simulation

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to assess the chronological variations in the available transfer capability (ATC) caused by uncertainties associated with hourly load fluctuations and equipment unavailabilities. The system states resulting from these uncertainties are generated using the Monte Carlo method with sequential simulation (MCMSS). The ATC for each generated state is evaluated through a linear dc optimal power flow (OPF). The test results, with a modified version of the IEEE Reliability Test System, demonstrate that the time-dependent uncertainties have a significant impact on the ATC. These effects have been assessed through statistical indexes such as expected values, box plot, and percentiles.Index Terms-Available transfer capability (ATC), composite system, linear programming, Monte Carlo method (MCM), power system reliability.

Optimal Available Transfer Capability Assessment Strategy for Wind Integrated Transmission Systems Considering Uncertainty of Wind Power Probability Distribution

“…Prob 1 (Q G ) in Equation (13) can be regarded as a sub-optimization problem, the decision variable is Q G . The dual problem of sub-optimization problem is as follows:…”

“…The genetic algorithm [4,5], particle swarm optimization [6], optimal power flow method [7], probability analytical method, stochastic programming method [8], Monte Carlo simulation [9,10], and the enumeration method [11] were adopted for this purpose. For describing the wind power uncertainty, the statistical probability method [12][13][14][15] and scene analysis method [16] are adopted. Both of these methods assume that the probability distribution function of wind speed or wind power is determined.…”

“…However, the above proposed statistical probability method and scene analysis method did not consider the uncertainty of the wind power probability distribution function. Due to the fact that the probability distribution function of wind power which is used to describe the uncertainty is also uncertain, the ATC assessment methods mentioned in [12][13][14][15][16][17][18] may be ineffective.…”

Bi-Level Optimization for Available Transfer Capability Evaluation in Deregulated Electricity Market

“…Lower Level : ED optimization problem tp1q´p6qu (14) where G 1 i and D 1 i in the Models (7)- (14) are the generation and demand in the ATC evaluation model, which should increase in the Source and Sink areas, respectively. Equation (8) means that the total increased demand in the Sink area equals the total increased generation in the Source area.…”

An Advanced Method of Congestion Management for Optimal Energy Pricing

“…Market operators have been using the DC-OPF for dispatching power and clearing energy (Farmer et al, 1995;Hogan, 1998;Singh et al, 1998;Karaki et al, 2002;Niimura & Niu, 2002;Fonseka & Shrestha, 2004;Hamoud & Bradley, 2004;Dan et al, 2006) to determine the LMP due to its speed and robustness, particularly in market simulation and planning (Wu et al, 2004;Junjie & Tesfatsion, 2007;Li & Bo, 2007). Generally, the DC-OPF is used for security constrained economic dispatch and redispatch when controlling transmission congestion while maximising the economic power transfer capability of the transmission system without violating its constraints (Kafka, 1999;Yajing et al, 2006;Gomes & Saraiva, 2007;Rodrigues & Silva, 2007). However, DC-OPF does not consider the network losses.…”