Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

Abstract

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

Field‐scale reactive transport assessment of CO2 storage in the Farnsworth unit through enhanced oil recovery practices

“…The studies similarly conclude that the small changes in porosity and the predicted reservoir pressures are too small to pose storage safety risks or undermine the storage potential of the FWU field. The predicted mineral abundance evolutions in these studies are also similar to those reported in studies of other sandstone reservoirs, for example, Rochelle et al, 80 Xu et al, 76 Kaszuba et al, 77 Lu et al, 78 Marbler et al, 79 and Ilgen and Cygan. 81…”

“…18). These porosity changes are too small to impact the hydraulic properties of the Morrow B Sandstone significantly based on the porosity-permeability relationships that have been published for the Morrow B in the FWU 78 .…”

Quantitative interpretation of time‐lapse seismic data at Farnsworth field unit: Rock physics modeling, and calibration of simulated time‐lapse velocity responses

“…The current static model utilizes the hydraulic flow unit to characterize rock types within the reservoir. 8,36,44 An upscaled reservoir simulation model with 94 × 89 grid cells present in each layer and a total of 677,646 grid cells was utilized in this study. The dimension of each grid block measures 200 × 200 ft.…”

“…The SWP dynamic model calibrated for the primary and secondary recovery stage was used as a base case model for the tertiary recovery period. The current static model utilizes the hydraulic flow unit to characterize rock types within the reservoir 8,36,44 . An upscaled reservoir simulation model with 94 $$ \times \;$$89 grid cells present in each layer and a total of 677,646 grid cells was utilized in this study.…”

Forecasting CO2 Sequestration with Enhanced Oil Recovery

“…Asante et al [10] present probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of CO 2 that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyze the uncertainties associated with the estimation. The results of the estimation of the CO 2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both an expectation curve and log probability plot.…”