Probabilistic Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from a Bayesian Approach in the Northwest Frontier of the Himalayas

Yadav, R. B. S.; Tsapanos, Theodoros M.; Bayrak, Yusuf; Koravos, G. Ch.

doi:10.1007/s00024-012-0488-2

Cited by 28 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The study region partially overlaps with some of the zones as defined in previous studies viz. Parvez and Ram (1997), Shanker et al (2007), Yadav (2009), Yadav et al (2010aYadav et al ( , 2010bYadav et al ( , 2012aYadav et al ( , 2012bYadav et al ( , 2013aYadav et al ( , 2013bYadav et al ( , 2015, and Chingtham et al (2016). In particular, Parvez and Ram (1997) found that the lognormal model comparatively fits better to the Hindukush region, and the region has reached to the highest conditional probability level for an elapsed time of 23 years (i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…While Yadav et al (2010b) observed that the gamma model is the most suitable model, Pasari and Dikshit (2015a), from a comprehensive list of 11 probability models, remarked that the gamma, exponentiated exponential, and Weibull models provide the best fit to the observed interoccurrence times. In the northwest Himalaya and its vicinity, including part of India, Pakistan, Hindukush, Pamirs, Mongolia, and Tien-Shan, remarkable efforts towards probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazard parameters are made by Parvez and Ram (1997), Shanker et al (2007), Yadav (2009), Yadav et al (2010aYadav et al ( , 2012aYadav et al ( , 2012bYadav et al ( , 2013aYadav et al ( , 2013bYadav et al ( , 2015, and Chingtham et al (2016). Shanker et al (2007) used Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution of extreme value probability model in three seismotectonic zones in the Hindukush-Pamir northwest Himalaya region to assess time-dependent seismicity in these regions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Analysis of time-dependent seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters (e.g. mean seismic activity rate, b-value of Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, and upper-bound or maximum regional magnitude) in 28 seismogenic source zones in the northwest Himalaya has been performed in a series of works by Yadav et al (2012aYadav et al ( , 2012bYadav et al ( , 2013aYadav et al ( , 2013bYadav et al ( , 2015 using classical and Bayesian statistics, Kijko-Sellevol method, and Gumbel III distribution. The spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters including annual and 100-years mode of earthquake magnitude in northwest Himalaya was undertaken by Yadav et al (2012b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stochastic modelling of earthquake interoccurrence times in Northwest Himalaya and adjoining regions

Pasari

2018

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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This work concentrates on the distribution of earthquake interevent times in northwest Himalaya and its adjacent regions. We consider 12 timedependent probability distributions for analysis. The maximum likelihood estimation and Fisher information matrix-based methods are used to estimate model parameters and their respective uncertainties. Results from three model selection criteria suggest that the best fit arises from exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions. An intermediate fit comes from exponentiated Rayleigh, and lognormal distributions, whereas the remaining distributions exhibit a poor fit to the seismic interoccurrence times of present catalogue. Using exponentiated Weibull model, it is observed that the estimated cumulative probability of magnitude 6.0 or higher event in the northwest Himalaya reaches 0.92-0.95 after about 20-23 (2019-2022) years since the last event in 1999. The conditional probability, for an elapsed time of 19 years (i.e. 2018), reaches 0.90-0.95 after about 20-25 (2038-2043) years from now. A series of conditional probability curves is also presented to understand the recent and future earthquake hazard in the study region. This temporal evolution of seismic interevent times may provide important clues to the underlying physical mechanism of earthquake genesis in the northwest Himalaya region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stochastic modelling of earthquake interoccurrence times in Northwest Himalaya and adjoining regions

Pasari

2018

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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“…The technique that was used is described in detail in papers about the method (PISARENKO et al 1996;PISARENKO and LYUBUSHIN 1999;TSAPANOS et al 2001TSAPANOS et al , 2002LYUBUSHIN et al 2002;TSAPANOS and CHRISTO-VA 2003;TSAPANOS 2003, LYUBUSHIN andPARVEZ 2010;YADAV et al 2012). A brief description of the method is given below.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Determination of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from Bayesian Approach for Different Seismic Source Regions of Western Anatolia

Bayrak

Türker

2015

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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The Bayesian method is used to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters of maximum regional magnitude (M max ), b value, and seismic activity rate or intensity (k) and their uncertainties for the 15 different source regions in Western Anatolia. A compiled earthquake catalog that is homogenous for M s C 4 was completed during the period from 1900 to 2013. The computed M max values are between 6.00 and 8.06. Low values are found in the northern part of Western Anatolia, whereas high values are observed in the southern part of Western Anatolia, related to the Aegean subduction zone. The largest value is computed in region 10, comprising the Aegean Islands. The quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude on a given time interval [0,T] are evaluated. The quantiles of functions of distributions of apparent and true magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated in all seismogenic source regions for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70, and 90 %. According to the computed earthquake hazard parameters, the requirement leads to the earthquake estimation of the parameters referred to as the most seismically active regions of Western Anatolia. The Aegean Islands, which have the highest earthquake magnitude (7.65) in the next 100 years with a 90 % probability level, is the most dangerous region compared to other regions. The results found in this study can be used in probabilistic seismic hazard studies of Western Anatolia.

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“…Moreover, it is worth mentioning that many urban districts are located in or near such basins. Earthquake damage related to basin became a serious problem for modern cities as industry develops and the pace of urbanization speeds up [11] [12]. The bottom shapes of basins are usually quite different from each other.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Dynamic Property for Wave Reflection in Basin over a Half Infinite Space by Staggered Grid RFFT Differentiation

Zhao¹,

Xu²

2015

OJG

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Simulations for seismic wave propagation in the sedimentary basin over half-infinite rock space were performed in this analysis. The results indicated that the basin shape in heterogeneous structures affected wave dynamic characteristics in propagating. The refraction wave from the rock brought the multireflection wave and the secondary surface wave in the basin. The waves oscillating up-down within the basin shook the buildings time after time resulting in heavy damage. The geometrical focusing by basin corners and the physical interference between waves significantly amplified the ground motions. The location of peak ground motion due to the interference was attributable to the apparent velocity difference between the secondary surface wave and the body wave. The late-arrival waves also resulted in the peak ground motion. The frequencies of the late-arrival waves of multireflection might cause dispersion. The late-arrival conversion waves with various frequencies widened the frequency band of seismic input waves shaking buildings and could seriously damage buildings with corresponding intrinsic frequencies.

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Probabilistic Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from a Bayesian Approach in the Northwest Frontier of the Himalayas

Cited by 28 publications

References 28 publications

Stochastic modelling of earthquake interoccurrence times in Northwest Himalaya and adjoining regions

Stochastic modelling of earthquake interoccurrence times in Northwest Himalaya and adjoining regions

The Determination of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from Bayesian Approach for Different Seismic Source Regions of Western Anatolia

Simulation of Dynamic Property for Wave Reflection in Basin over a Half Infinite Space by Staggered Grid RFFT Differentiation

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