Probabilistic Analysis of Transportation Systems for Oil and Natural Gas

Abstract

In this chapter, the need of probabilistic modeling for design, construction, and operation of oil and gas pipelines is justified. Such modeling should use information and databases on deterministic and statistical dependencies related to deformation, damage accumulation, failure, fracture accidents, and catastrophes. The probabilistic design equations and their parameters for the characteristics of strength, durability, fracture toughness, risks of accidents, and manmade catastrophes are given. The economic efficiency of pipeline management based on controlling probabilistic characteristics through conducting diagnostic, repair-and-renewal operations while ensuring the acceptable levels of reliability and safety parameters is substantiated. The results of studies in the field of statistics and probabilities of emergency situations during manufacturing, construction, and operation conducted by Russian and foreign specialists are presented.

Combined Calculated, Experimental and Determinated and Probable Justifications for Strength of Trunk Crude Oil Pipelines

“…A generalized analysis of trends and parameters of the development of pipeline transport of oil and oil pipelines and methods for calculating the strength is made in [6,7].…”

“…In deterministic calculations according to (1) and (2), a systematic analysis of uncertainty factors affecting the quantities n σ , n, m, K I , and K н is carried out. These factors [6][7][8][9][10] included such factors as:…”

“…where -If such initial information is absent, then the construction of calculated curves is possible [6,7] (0≤ ≤ 0.03 for in hours).…”