Probabilistic analysis of getting into in restricted area by unmanned aerial vehical

Abstract

The probabilistic analysis of crossing by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) of the boundary of the no-fly area is solved. Condition of stating of the fact of the violation of the boundary of the restricted area is to stand of UAV within the area during a specified time. The substantiation of the mathematical model to research through linearized vector stochastic equation is carried out. The problem is solved by applying the theory of Markov processes of random structure with absorption of realizations at the boundary of a given area. Particularity of the approach is the contemporaneously consideration of two probability densities of the distribution of phase coordinates that describe the boundary conditions. In this case, two equations systems are solved for probabilistic moments: taking into account the absorption of realizations and without taking into account the absorption. The probability of an object gets into specified area and do not leave one during the time that necessary to notice the unmanned aerial vehicle at the restricted area.