Probabilistic Aircraft Conflict Analysis for a Vision of the Future Air Traffic Management System

Development of a 3-Dimensional Mathematical Collision Risk Model Based on Recorded Aircraft Trajectories to Estimate the Safety Level in High Density En-Route Airspaces

“…Nevertheless, most of the researches on this field have just worked in the estimation of probabilities of conflict (before deliberate actions are taken to solve the conflicts) and how these probabilities depend on aircraft separation standards. Different current and future Air Traffic Management operational concepts have been studied under this perspective in an attempt to reduce aircraft separation standards [41], [42] or with the aim of designing proper avoidance manoeuvres in order to maintain the prescribed minimum separation standards among aircraft [43] [44] The previous considerations give an idea of the complexity of using stored aircraft tracks, within a given scenario and time frame, to infer safety level, collision risk probability and associated system weaknesses. In most high density airspace scenarios recorded tracks can be obtained for all aircraft flying in it, for example, from Radar Data Processing systems (RDP).…”

“…The elementary probability of having an ACj projected segment on the impact plane with coordinates (y' 1p ,z' 1p ) will be then: (41) Furthermore, errors due to radar errors, for every projected CPA' p (y' 1p ,z' 1p ) there is also an associated error as shown in Figure 3.23.…”