Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

Iodine-131 Releases from Radioactive Lanthanum Processing at the X-10 Site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee (1944-1956)- An Assessment of Quantities released, Off-Site Radiation Doses, and Potential Excess Risks of Thyroid Cancer, Volume 1

“…These distributions are applied in the present study to describe the current state of knowledge about F m for the transfer of 131 I into the milk of backyard cows. These distributions are not dissimilar to those described in previous reports (Table 6.3 and Figure 6.5), including the results of the recent NRC/CEC expert elicitation (Brown et al, 1997).…”

Evaluating variability and uncertainty in radiological impact assessment using SYMBIOSE

“…This moderate impact was also confirmed on the results of the case-study earlier (data not shown). Last, the narrowest distributions are the log-uniform distributions defined for ECOSYS as reviewed by NUREG/CR-6523 (Brown et al, 1997), which may appear, according to this example, insufficient to correctly account for the highest values. The log-normal distributions (defined on at least 10 values) presented in Tables 1e11 do not cover the whole list of elements potentially encountered in a scenario.…”

“…Tables 1 to 11, and the Excel file provided in the Supplementary material, should provide modellers helpful materialisation of the TRS 472 (IAEA, 2009) and TECDOC 1616(IAEA, 2010 reports. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there had been earlier proposals of default PDFs for ECOSYS, COSYMA, or RESRAD, as defined or reviewed by NUREG/CR-6523 (Brown et al, 1997) and by NUREG/CR-6697 (US-NRC, 2000). These PDFs were based on earlier literature reviews, or on elicitation by experts.…”

“…for two (element, parameter) combinations: (Cs, cow milk) and (Sr, beef meat). The widest ranges were those proposed by NUREG/CR-6523 (Brown et al, 1997), as an "Aggregate expert Distribution", on the basis of the combination of 5th, 50th and 95th quantiles elicited by experts. This may be explained by the fact that experts intuitively took margins around the data they were aware of.…”

“…2. Comparison of 5 cumulative distribution functions (CDFs): the truncated lognormal defined for SYMBIOSE (this study), the same distribution without truncature, the log-uniform distribution defined for ECOSYS as mentioned by NUREG/CR-6523 (Brown et al, 1997), the truncated log-normal defined for RESRAD by NUREG/CR-6697 (US-NRC, 2000), and the empirical aggregate expert distribution defined for COSYMA by NUREG/CR-6523, for each of two transfer factors from feed to animal products: (a) transfer of Cs to milk (dairy cows), (b) transfer of Sr to beef meat (cattle).…”