Proactive Criminal Thinking and Restrictive Deterrence: A Pathway to Future Offending and Sanction Avoidance

Abstract

Perceived crime benefit and criminal thinking are essential factors in predicting future offending. However, less is known about how the interaction of the two influences individuals’ perception and cognition of crime. This study explores whether proactive criminal thinking mediates the effect of perceived crime benefit, and tests whether restrictive deterrence influences these pathways. Using a drug dealer sample that was drawn from the Second RAND Inmate Survey, this paper finds that proactive criminal thinking significantly mediates the effect of perceived crime benefit on future offending, criminal self-efficacy, and future sanction avoidance. Mediation pathways are enhanced when taking a heterogeneous crime strategy as a moderator, but only in the experienced drug dealer subsample. These results suggest that proactive criminal thinking is a route for channeling the effects of perceived crime benefit, and an amplifier for bringing restrictive deterrence into play. Both roles apply to experienced offenders rather than less-experienced offenders. Integrating restrictive deterrence with individuals’ perception and cognition of crime is a meaningful attempt to fit restrictive deterrence into a broader theoretical map.

Offender Recidivism as A Function of Criminal Thinking Style and Criminogenic Needs

“…For instance, Self-reported substance uses and dependency, together with psychopathic traits, were found to be important predictors of sexual and violent recidivism in high-risk sex offenders (Bazinet et al, 2022). According to Guan and Lo (2022), proactive criminal thinking functions as a mediator between the influence of perceived crime advantages on recidivism and the role of criminal thinking and perceived crime benefits in predicting future offending. Grandhi et al (2022) investigated the relationship between locus of control along with coping methods and discovered that external locus of control and an avoidant coping style both predicted of reoffending.…”