Prioritizing Indecent Image Offenders: A Systematic Review and Economic Approach to Understand the Benefits of Evidence-Based Policing Strategies

Abstract

In 2013, there were an estimated 50,000 individuals involved in downloading and sharing indecent images of children (IIOC) in the United Kingdom (UK). This poses challenges for limited police resources. We argue that police officers can make most effective use of limited resources by prioritizing those offenders who pose the greatest risk of contact offending, by nature of demonstrable pedophilia, hebephilia or dual offending status and thus, those at highest risk must be dealt with first. What is currently lacking is a clear idea of the potential scale of the problem in socio-economic terms and why, therefore, it is so important that evidence-based approaches to offender detection and investigation continue to be a top priority for funders and policy makers. A systematic literature review was undertaken to address two related questions. First, what is the scale of the problem in the UK, in terms of the number of pedophilic and hebephilic individuals who pose a risk of contact offending against a child? Second, what is the potential socio-economic burden generated by the national IIOC suspect pool if left unattended to by targeted police action? Applying population estimates of pedophilia and hebephilia to the male population (16–89 years), we estimate there are between 2,365–5,991 males with paedophila and 12,218–30,952 males with hebephilia who are likely contact offenders. Applying average prevalence and incidence based costing methods to a conservative estimate of one victim per offender, the combined socio-economic burden from these persons could amount to £236-£597 million (incident costs) increasing to £2.9-£7.3 billion (lifetime costs; £3.3-£8.3 billion including QALY measures). Applying the same costs to CEOP (2013) estimate of 50,000 IIOC offenders we estimate that between 6,000 and 27,500 dual offenders could have already committed past contact offenses, contributing an economic burden of between £97–£445 million (incident costs) increasing to £1.2–£5.4 billion (lifetime costs; £1.4–£6.2 billion including QALY measures). Future contact offenses could contribute a further burden of £16–£18.6 million (incident costs) increasing to £198–£227 million (lifetime costs; £226–£260 million including QALY measures). Drawing upon these findings, we argue for the benefits of a research-informed prioritization approach to target IIOC offenders.

An Economic Evaluation of the Impact of Using Rapport-Based Interviewing Approaches With Child Sexual Abuse Suspects

“…Following a systematic review methodology, Giles and Alison (2021) considered Saied-Tessier (2014) ; Heeks et al (2018) , and Letourneau et al (2018) for inclusion in economic analysis given their focus on either child sexual abuse, the full range of costs included and/or focus on the United Kingdom. Saied-Tessier (2014) was further discounted from analysis as unit costs were not available across a range of measures.…”

“…To provide a cost per incident, Heeks et al (2018) calculate the unit cost of rape as £39,360 and other sexual offences as £6,520 in 2015/16. Figures increase to £43,214 and £7,158 in 2019 using Bank of England online “inflation” calculator with inflation averaged at 3.2% a year ( Giles and Alison, 2021 ). These figures are drawn on in the economic proofs provided in study 2.…”

“…Separately, Letourneau et al (2018) estimate quality of life losses as $41,001 for female victims and $38,904 for male victims. Upper bound estimates could therefore include quality of life losses (adjusted to $40,477 to account for 75% of victims being female, see Giles and Alison, 2021 ). This was calculated as £25,318 in 2015 and increased to £28,279 in 2019 (using the same method).…”

“…This requires a huge investment of time and resources to tackle the problems. Giles and Alison (2021) calculated that the Child Exploitation and Online Protection Command’s estimated national pool of 50,000 IIOC suspects ( CEOP, 2013 ) could have already contributed an economic burden of £97–£445 million (incident costs) increasing to £1.2–£5.4bn (lifetime costs for services and victims) through historical contact CSA. If left unattended by targetted police action, historical victims would not be safeguarded and risk re-victimisation, and future contact offences could contribute a further burden of £16–£18.6 m (incident costs; £198–£227 m lifetime costs).…”

“…Adherence to rapport-based interviewing should have numerous benefits. Firstly, revealed information might present opportunities to safeguard victims, including undisclosed victims, offences, and suspects, thereby reducing the considerable economic costs associated with sexual victimisation ( Giles and Alison, 2021 ). Second, it would reduce workload as long delays with digital forensics to identify additional victims (e.g., Gallagher et al, 2006 ; Christie et al, 2015 ; Christie, 2018 ) may be avoided through it producing targetted intelligence.…”