27Background 28The proportional recovery rule asserts that most stroke survivors recover a fixed proportion of lost 29 function. Reports that the rule can be used to predict recovery, extraordinarily accurately, are 30 rapidly accumulating. Here, we show that the rule may not be as powerful as it seems. 31
Methods 32We provide a formal analysis of the relationship between baseline scores (X), outcomes (Y) and 33 recovery (Y-X), to highlight the shortcomings of the proportional recovery rule, and illustrate those 34 problems with simulations in which synthetic recovery data are derived from different types of 35 recovery processes. 36
Findings 37When the correlation between baseline scores and recovery is stronger than that between baselines 38 scores and outcomes, the former can create an inflated impression of how predictable outcomes 39 really are given baseline scores. This often happens when outcomes are less variable than baseline 40 scores, as is common in empirical studies of recovery after stroke. Moreover, we cannot use the 41 results of these correlations to distinguish proportional recovery from recovery which is either not 42 consistently proportional, or not proportional at all. 43
Interpretation 44Analyses relating baseline scores to subsequent change are a minefield: our formal analysis applies 45 as consistently outside the area of stroke as it does within it. One implication of our analysis is that 46 the proportional recovery rule is not as predictive of real recovery after stroke as recent empirical 47 studies suggest. Another is that different analytical methods will be required to ascertain whether 48 recovery is even proportional at all. 49 50 All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.