Primena Tehnika Uglačavanja Kod Referentne Evapotranspiracije U Srbiji

Milanovic, Mladen; Gocić, Milan; Trajković, Slaviša

doi:10.14415/konferencijagfs2018.037

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…The results indicate that data the simple exponential produce very reliable forecasting as forecasted values are very close to the current values. The results of present study are similar to what other studies have reported about the utilization of simple exponential smoothing for forecasting environmental variables (Salas and Subburayalu 2019;Fatima et al 2019;Septiarini and Musikasuwan 2018;Milanovic et al 2018;Ruekkasaem and Sasananan 2018).…”

Section: Selection Of Appropriate Smoothing Constantsupporting

confidence: 92%

Application of Simple Exponential Smoothing Method for Temperature Forecasting in Two Major Cities of the Punjab, Pakistan

Zafar¹,

Kashif²,

Khan³

et al. 2021

Agrobiol. Records

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Weather forecasting has been getting more attention from researchers and becoming influential factor for effective policy and planning at local and global level. Climatic variations have been directly affected by global warming and happened to rise atmospheric temperature; as a resultant about 0.74°C temperature of earth has been increased during last 100 years. In Pakistan, daily environmental temperature has been increasing; on average there is 0.6°C rise of daily environmental temperature has been observed. This research has been focused on the modeling and forecasting about daily temperature of Faisalabad and Lahore districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The results showed that simple exponential technique is more appropriate technique for modeling the temperature data as compared to other methods such as Holt’s exponential and Holt’s winter exponential techniques. The forecasting of temperature data was made on the optimum value of smoothing constant. The selection of optimal smoothing constant was based on the minimum values of mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The application of simple exponential technique is therefore recommended for prediction of climatic variables like rainfall, humidity and wind speed because of its forecasting accuracy for short term period. This research will be helpful to researchers and policy makers who are associated with environment-based work.

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Section: Selection Of Appropriate Smoothing Constantsupporting

confidence: 92%