Primary Products and Economic Growth: An Empirical Measurement

Chambers, Edward J.; Gordon, Donald F.

doi:10.1086/259176

Cited by 150 publications

(27 citation statements)

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“…Some years ago Chambers and Gordon (1966) , using a general equilibrium model set within a counterfacrual context, ignited a controversy over the contribution of exports to the growth in per capita income in Canada during the flfSt decade of this century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population Growth and the Dynamics of Canadian Development: A Multivariate Time Series Approach

Green

Sparks

1999

Explorations in Economic History

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population Growth and the Dynamics of Canadian Development: A Multivariate Time Series Approach

Green

Sparks

1999

Explorations in Economic History

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“…La théorie traditionaliste, qui remonte au début des années vingt (Mackintosh, 1964), prétend que le secteur des exportations a été la source essentielle de la croissance économique et que le secteur manufacturier n'aurait connu un véritable essor qu'à partir du boom du blé (1896). La théorie révisionniste, plus récente, associée à des auteurs comme Chambers et Gordon (1966), prétend que la croissance du revenu per capita durant la période 1870-1926 n'a pas été attribuable à la présence ou à l'absence de marchés d'exportation.…”

Section: Resultsunclassified

La persistance des chocs au Canada, 1870-1996

Hamdad

Harchaoui

2005

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Ce travail examine la persistance des chocs de la production agrégée dans une perspective multisectorielle. Cette approche permet de décomposer la persistance des chocs de la production en deux composantes : la première due à des chocs d’origine macroéconomique explicitement identifiés et la seconde à des chocs « autres », probablement d’origine sectorielle. Ce cadre d’analyse a été appliqué à des séries historiques sur la production sectorielle de l’économie canadienne pour les périodes d’avant-guerre et d’après-guerre, pour lesquelles les chocs macroéconomiques explicitement identifiés ont été, respectivement, le choc du blé de 1890 et le choc pétrolier de 1973. Les résultats présentés dans ce papier ont a) confirmé dans le contexte canadien que l’approche désagrégée fournit des estimations plus faibles et résolument plus fiables de la mesure de la persistance que ceux obtenus au moyen d’une approche agrégée univariée ; b) permis de montrer que les effets des chocs ont eu tendance à devenir légèrement plus persistants à travers le temps ; et c) mesuré le degré auquel le choc du blé a contribué à provoquer une déviation permanente sur la production de l’économie canadienne et ainsi corroborer la thèse traditionaliste de l’histoire économique du Canada.The persistence of shocks to aggregate output in Canada is investigated under a multisectoral framework. This approach allows for a decomposition of the persistent effect of output into macro and “other” possibly sector-specific shocks. The framework makes the distinction between the pre-war and post-war eras and their corresponding macro shocks, namely the 1896 wheat boom and the 1973 oil shock. The results obtained by our investigation are threefold: a) they reveal that the point estimate of the aggregate persistence measure based on this disaggregated framework is lower and considerably more precisely estimated than the estimate based on the aggregate univariate models; b) they indicate that shocks tend to be slightly more persistent in the post-war period in comparison with the pre-war era, and c) they indicate that the wheat boom has indeed created a major and permanent deviation to the aggregate output, thereby supporting the traditional view of the Canadian economic history

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“…We assume that because of the inflow of labor from the service sector, there is an expansion in the overall size of the manufacturing sector. 29 That the impact of the wheat boom on Canada would have been in terms of extensive growth was also suggested by Dales et al (1967) in their rebuttal to Chambers and Gordon (1966), but they did not attempt an empirical estimate of the importance of extensive growth. 21 An explanation of economic base analysis and methodology is found in Davis 1990: 9-28.…”

Section: (I) Y = E + Smentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One view has argued that the contribution of the wheat boom to per capita income growth in Canada was very small (Chambers and Gordon 1966;Harley 1986). The arguments counter to this view have centered on revising the estimate of the wheat boom's contribution upward by moving from a partial to a general equilibrium framework (Caves 1971;Bertram 1973;Lewis 1975).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Booming Sector Models, Economic Base Analysis, and Export-Led Economic Development: Regional Evidence from the Lakehead

Matteo¹

1993

Social Science History

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Primary Products and Economic Growth: An Empirical Measurement

Cited by 150 publications

References 0 publications

Population Growth and the Dynamics of Canadian Development: A Multivariate Time Series Approach

Population Growth and the Dynamics of Canadian Development: A Multivariate Time Series Approach

La persistance des chocs au Canada, 1870-1996

Booming Sector Models, Economic Base Analysis, and Export-Led Economic Development: Regional Evidence from the Lakehead

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