Primary Divisiveness and General Election Success: A Re-Examination

Too Much Democracy? Primaries and Candidate Success in the 2006 Mexican National Elections

“…For instance, McCann et al (2001) find that participation in a presidential nomination campaign has important beneficial spillover effects on subsequent mobilization in favor of candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives. On the question of how primaries affect subsequent activist mobilization, see also McCann 1995;Stone et al 1992;Piereson and Smith 1975. 8. Indirectly, however, the question of whether primaries select high-quality candidates affects the party's PR seat count.…”

Primary Divisiveness and General Election Outcomes in State Legislative Races

“…Two studies have found that divisive presidential primaries affect general election vote totals (Lengle, 1980;Kenney and Rice, 1987), but three others failed to find a negative effect in elections for the U.S. House of Representatives (Born, 1981;Galderisi, 1982;and Kenney, 1986). In addition to Hacker's research three studies have examined the effects of divisive primaries on gubernatorial elections; two have found no relationship (Piereson and Smith, 1975;Galderisi, 1982) and one has found the expected effect (Kenney and Rice, 1984). I t seems clear from the mixed results of the studies undertaken to date that there is little clear support for the generalization that divisive primaries hurt a candidate's chances in the general election.…”

“…Despite the fact that no clear pattern in support of the idea that primaries are harmful to general election outcomes is discernable, some of t h e most recent studies have dealt effectively with criticisms of the earlier ones. For example the studies by Born (1981) and Kenney andRice (1984, 1987) treat both primary divisiveness and general election outcomes as continous variables where earli-er studies treated them as dichotomous (Hacker, 1965;Bernstein, 1977;Lengle, 1980;and Piereson and Smith, 1975). Born (19811, Westlye (1985), and Kenney (1986) have dealt effectively with t h e suggestion that relationships may be reciprocal-eandidates who had weak showings in previous general elections are most likely to have divisive primaries and poor general election results.…”

Unintended Consequences: Anticipation of General Election Outcomes And Primary Election Divisiveness

“…The plausibility of these causal mechanisms notwithstanding, studies investigating whether or not divisive primaries actually harm the general election fortunes of party nominees have produced decidedly inconclusive results. Some studies have found that divisive primaries hurt candidates in the general election (Abramowitz 1988;Bernstein 1977;Segura and Nicholson 1995); others have found a mixed relationship (Born 1981;Hogan 2003;Kenney and Rice 1984) or none at all (Hacker 1965;Kenney 1988;Piereson and Smith 1975). Recent scholarship has even begun to turn the common wisdom on its head, finding that divisive primaries actually help U.S. House challengers (Alvarez, Canon, and Sellers 1995;Arbour and McKenzie 2002;Herrnson 2000).…”