is an FX analyst at the Swiss National Bank in Zurich, Switzerland.
ralf.buesser@alumni.unisg.chThis article examines the fine structure of risk-neutral currency returns. For this purpose, I specify models comprising pure or time-changed diffusion risk, pure or time-changed jumps, or both. The models are calibrated to vanilla options and subsequently applied to the one-touch option market. Since one-touches are unspanned by a complete set of vanilla options, they lend themselves to a rigorous out-of-sample test.The results suggest that vanilla and onetouch option markets do not generally agree on the fine structure of currency returns: Evidence from the vanilla market favors a complex model with stochastic volatility and jumps, whereas one-touch options imply purely diffusive currency dynamics. This latter finding gives rise to two interpretations: either the high activity in currency markets is best reflected by the infinite variation of a diffusive risk factor, or the result is an artifact of market makers who anchor their quotes to what the pure diffusion Black-Scholes model implies.
Notes: USDJPY pricing performance for the various models. The pricing bias (vertical axis) is depicted against the unskewed TV (horizontal axis), with downside and upside one-touch options (crosses) being depicted left and right of the center, respectively. A kernel estimate of the pricing biases is given by the solid line.
E X H I B I T 9 Pricing Errors by Moneyness BucketNotes: Pricing errors for the different models grouped by moneyness buckets. n in the far-left column reveals the number of quotes per bucket. The letters U and D refer to upside respectively downside option quotes. The pricing errors are computed as the percentage absolute pricing bias.Notes: Performance comparison of the various models based on the MAPE. The reported MAPE differences for row j and column k reveals whether model j is superior to model k. t-statistics are computed using Newey-West [1987] robust standard errors. * and ** indicate significance at the 5% and 1% confidence level.