Price Parities for Vegetables in Serbia - Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

The paper analyzes price parities of important vegetable crops in Serbia in relation to wheat, which has always been a point of reference in price formation of other agricultural products. The analysis was carried out by means of descriptive statistics for the period 1994-2017 for the following vegetable crops: potato, bean, tomato, pepper, onion and cabbage. The method used for forecasting of the price parities for the period 2018-2022 is time series analysis, i.e. ARIMA models. The research results showed that the price parities of bean, tomato and pepper will increase: from 9.1 to 12.3 for bean, from 1.9 to 3.5 for tomato and from 2.3 to 3 for pepper. The price parities for potato (1.4) and cabbage (1.4) will remain practically unchanged, while the price parity of onion will decrease to 1.5.

A Bibliometric Analysis of Literature on Vegetable Prices at Domestic and International Markets—A Knowledge Graph Approach

“…International scholars have focused their research on forecasting vegetable prices, through which forecasts facilitate the formulation of policies for governments and enable vegetable farmers to manage their risks in advance and minimize losses. Scholars use the ARIMA model to predict Serbia's prices from 2018 to 2022 [35] and use a hybrid method of STL and ELM to predict the seasonality of vegetable prices in China. The accuracy of their predictions is still relatively high [36].…”