Price Dynamics of the World Gold Market: A Model Incorporating Inventories

Abstract

Gold is regarded as a strategic mineral in many countries and its price is a key indicator of global business confidence. There is need for dynamic modelling of the world gold market, which would enhance understanding of the world market conditions, especially the long-term tendency of world gold prices, and hence facilitate long-term planning. This study incorporates inventories into the world market model and uses simultaneous equation approaches to estimate the model. From this estimation, the paper derives the time-path for the world annual price of gold. Results show that the price time-path converges without oscillations, from below, towards an intertemporal equilibrium. This equilibrium is estimated at about US$105,000.00 per kilogram based on a projected average world income. If the assumption of average income is relaxed, the intertemporal equilibrium price becomes variable dependent on the actual values of world income at a given time, which however, does not alter its dynamic characteristics. The results, therefore, show that gold price is dynamically stable. Short-term fluctuations, which are sometimes extreme, have no long-term effect on gold attractiveness.