Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber

Price discovery and volatility spillovers in futures and spot commodity markets

“…Price discovery and volatility spillovers decision-making leads to an optimal allocation of scarce resources (Manfredo and Sanders, 2008). The rest of the paper is organized into the four sections.…”

Mexican wolves, elk, and aspen in Arizona: Is there a trophic cascade?

“…needs of a cow and calf over a period of one month) for the Udall and Big Lake Allotments; these allotments occur along the southern end of the Springerville District. Timber harvest volumes (boardfeet/acre) were compiled for the adjacent Springerville and Alpine Districts; volumes were converted to m 3 using a conversion factor of 0.0024 bd-ft/m 3 (Manfredo and Sanders, 2008). Big game harvest records for Arizona game management unit 1 (which covers essentially all of the Springerville District and the northern portion of the Alpine District) were used to index the general abundance of elk, mule deer, and Coues white-tailed deer, as well as temporal trends in their populations (AGFD, 2009).…”

Forecasting Performance of Lumber Futures Prices

“…Deckard [2] finds lumber spot prices marginally exogenous to (hence leading) lumber futures for the 1983-1998 period for a one-month forecast horizon. Manfredo and Sanders [3] finds that lumber futures prices lead spot prices using data from 2002 to 2005 for a 6 Economics Research International one-week forecast horizon. The contrasting findings could be the result of differences in data (quality, period, etc.…”

“…It concludes that the lumber spot market leads the futures market in price discovery. Similarly, Manfredo and Sanders [3] use a Granger causality test to find that a 3-month lumber forward price published by a private timber wholesaler leads lumber futures prices and spot prices in price discovery.…”

“…First, since the specific lumber commodity traded on the futures market is not traded in any spot market, most previous studies that employ lumber spot prices use an alternate lumber commodity spot price series. For example, Deckard [2] and Manfredo and Sanders [3] use a Western Spruce-Pine-Fir FOB mill spot price series reported by Random Lengths (a private price reporting and analysis service provider for solid wood products sections of the forest products industry sector), while He and Holt [4] as well as Hasan [5] use unspecified spot series reported by Random Lengths. The use of alternate spot price series can impact the results of the study.…”