Price and revenue projections under alternative policy shocks due to the coronavirus: Canadian lobster and snow crab

Abstract

The coronavirus will have serious consequences for the fishing industry. The purpose here is to simulate price and revenue outcomes for Canadian lobster and snow crab markets under alternative policy shocks due to the coronavirus. Predictions are based on three policy scenarios representing upper and lower bounds on the range of possible landings and economic outcomes for the period 2019–2021. Based on past research, demand equations for both the lobster and snow crab markets are used to empirically simulate price projections. The results for snow crab are startling with predicted serious declines in price and generated revenue, particularly for Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Compared to 2018, projections suggest a decline in average revenue for 2021 of − 18% Gulf, − 32% Maritimes, − 53% Québec, and − 57% NL. The outcome for lobster is not as bleak, projections showing a 21% decline in revenue for 2020 but with recovery in 2021.

Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on ex-vessel prices using time-series analysis

“…Ideally, impact estimates that consider demand structure should be used to simulate the counterfactual using the demand equations. For instance, (Gordon 2021 ) simulates price and revenue outcomes under an alternative policy due to the COVID-19 pandemic for Canadian lobster and snow crab fisheries using a model constructed in a pre-COVID study (Gordon 2020 ).…”

Impacts of Covid-19 on Norwegian salmon exports: A firm-level analysis

“…The first string of literature on the trade implications of Covid-related measures suggests that lockdowns had a negative impact on global value chains ( Landazuri-Tveteraas et al, 2021a , Landazuri-Tveteraas et al, 2021b ), forced firms to shut down and reduced the workforce across different economic sectors ( Nicola et al, 2020 ), and decreased demand for and trade of several products ( Bartik et al, 2020 ; Hayakawa and Mukunoki, 2021 ; Espitia et al, 2021 ). The early literature focusing specifically on seafood markets reports similar findings, largely based on qualitative data and indicators (e.g., Link et al, 2020 ; White et al, 2021 ; Bassett et al, 2021 ; Coll et al, 2021; Gordon, 2021 ; Lebel et al, 2021 ). However, the story is becoming more nuanced as updated data become available, indicating that Covid-related measures created opportunities for some and challenges for others.…”

Large-scale fisheries during the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of the oceangoing groundfish fleet in Norway

“…Some fisheries have also been affected on the demand side by the rapid increase in aquaculture production [11] , [12] as exemplified by species such as tilapia and pangasius in the whitefish market [13] , [14] . However, the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was more extensive and comprehensive than previous shocks in shifting both supply and demand [15] . On the supply side, lockdowns led to reduced production due to their negative effects on the movement of crews and the hiring of manpower for the processing industry [16] , [17] .…”

“…On the supply side, lockdowns led to reduced production due to their negative effects on the movement of crews and the hiring of manpower for the processing industry [16] , [17] . Substantial challenges were also found on the demand side as demand for seafood from the hotel, restaurant and catering sectors more or less disappeared and supply chains were disrupted in many countries when social distancing and lockdowns were adopted to prevent the spread of the virus [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] .…”