Prey switching as a means of enhancing persistence in predators at the trailing southern edge

Peers, Michael J. L.; Wehtje, Morgan; Thornton, Daniel H.; Murray, Dennis L.

doi:10.1111/gcb.12469

Cited by 43 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 57 publications

(114 reference statements)

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“…snowshoe hare Lepus americanus ) or competitor (e.g. bobcat Lynx rufus ) species, causing a northward shift in lynx distribution (Peers et al , ). Our analysis cannot disentangle these alternative possibilities, although it has long been thought that low‐latitude range margins in general are controlled primarily by biotic factors (MacArthur , Sexton et al ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change reduces genetic diversity of Canada lynx at the trailing range edge

et al. 2014

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Shifts in species distributions due to environmental change may aff ect the spatial pattern of genetic structure within a species ' range, including possible changes to the adaptive potential of populations. We investigated spatial patterns of neutral genetic diversity and diff erentiation at the southern edge of the Canada lynx Lynx canadensis distribution in Ontario, Canada. We analyzed provincial fur harvest records (1972 -2010) and collected and genotyped lynx pelt samples (2007 -2009) from 702 lynx at 14 microsatellite loci. We show that the southern range boundary of lynx in central Canada has contracted northward by Ͼ 175 km since the 1970s, and that high winter temperature, low snow depth, and low proportion of suitable habitat are strongly correlated with low neutral genetic diversity and high genetic diff erentiation at the trailing range edge. Our work tests fundamental ideas about species range limits and demonstrates that environmental conditions can have a marked infl uence on neutral genetic structure. Our results suggest that changes in environmental conditions will result in further loss of genetic diversity and possibly reduce adaptive potential in southern peripheral lynx populations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change reduces genetic diversity of Canada lynx at the trailing range edge

et al. 2014

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“…Notably, our criteria excluded migratory species, as well as those having more generalized habitat requirements that extended substantially outside the boreal forest. We also excluded Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis ), which met our criteria but whose distribution closely matches that of snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus ), their primary prey [33]. Note that we previously examined potential lynx population connectivity relative to climate change [15].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given the large number of potential environmental variables, we included sets of bioclimatic variables that we thought a priori would be biologically relevant [33], and these environmental data were resampled to 10 X 10 km grid cell size. In total, eight bioclimatic variables were included in the final MaxEnt modeling (annual mean temperature, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the wettest quarter, and precipitation of the driest quarter, see Figure C in S1 File).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Continental divide: Predicting climate-mediated fragmentation and biodiversity loss in the boreal forest

et al. 2017

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Climate change threatens natural landscapes through shifting distribution and abundance of species and attendant change in the structure and function of ecosystems. However, it remains unclear how climate-mediated variation in species’ environmental niche space may lead to large-scale fragmentation of species distributions, altered meta-population dynamics and gene flow, and disrupted ecosystem integrity. Such change may be especially relevant when species distributions are restricted either spatially or to a narrow environmental niche, or when environments are rapidly changing. Here, we use range-wide environmental niche models to posit that climate-mediated range fragmentation aggravates the direct effects of climate change on species in the boreal forest of North America. We show that climate change will directly alter environmental niche suitability for boreal-obligate species of trees, birds and mammals (n = 12), with most species ranges becoming smaller and shifting northward through time. Importantly, species distributions will become increasingly fragmented, as characterized by smaller mean size and greater isolation of environmentally-suitable landscape patches. This loss is especially pronounced along the Ontario-Québec border, where the boreal forest is narrowest and roughly 78% of suitable niche space could disappear by 2080. Despite the diversity of taxa surveyed, patterns of range fragmentation are remarkably consistent, with our models predicting that spruce grouse (Dendragapus canadensis), boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus), moose (Alces americanus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) could have entirely disjunct east-west population segments in North America. These findings reveal potentially dire consequences of climate change on population continuity and species diversity in the boreal forest, highlighting the need to better understand: 1) extent and primary drivers of anticipated climate-mediated range loss and fragmentation; 2) diversity of species to be affected by such change; 3) potential for rapid adaptation in the most strongly-affected areas; and 4) potential for invasion by replacement species.

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“…Therefore, the inclusion of biotic information including prey distribution in bioclimatic models will certainly improve current and future predictions of predator distribution and thereby also reduce uncertainty (Peers et al. ). While the distribution of snow leopard (predator) influences the distribution of blue sheep (prey) and vice versa (Aryal et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya

Aryal

Shrestha

et al. 2016

Ecology and Evolution

104

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Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy‐deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate‐only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km2) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km2 (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate‐only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.

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Prey switching as a means of enhancing persistence in predators at the trailing southern edge

Cited by 43 publications

References 57 publications

Climate change reduces genetic diversity of Canada lynx at the trailing range edge

Climate change reduces genetic diversity of Canada lynx at the trailing range edge

Continental divide: Predicting climate-mediated fragmentation and biodiversity loss in the boreal forest

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya

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