Previsão e Modelagem das Ocorrências de Incêndios no Pantanal

Abstract

Uncontrolled fire points and forest fires in the Pantanal cause great damage to local flora and fauna. The prediction of these events is of paramount importance as it may mitigate or even avoid disasters in the Pantanal ecosystem. Given that fire prevention should be constant, the identification of fire foci is essential for immediate intervention. The objective of this study was to evaluate the forest fires in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul associated with the meteorological variables and to perform a forecast modeling. The environmental variables involved in the process were provided by the database of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and from the meteorological database for teaching and research of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). A close relationship was observed between the meteorological variables temperature, relative humidity and solar radiation and the occurrence of foci and the resulting correlations were satisfactory for the application of forecasting models. The Multiple Linear Regression technique presented fit of 41% and the Integrated Self-Regressive Analysis of Moving Average technique, 66.5%, and a general performance of 68.4%, thus making the latter the most recommended methodology for forecasting.Keywords: environmental monitoring, pantanal biome, prevention of fire points, fire forecast. Previsão e Modelagem das Ocorrências de Incêndios no Pantanal ResumoAs queimadas e incêndios descontrolados que ocorrem no Pantanal causam grandes prejuízos à fauna e flora locais. A previsão desses eventos é de grande importância por possibilitar que as catástrofes no ecossistema do Pantanal sejam amenizadas ou, até mesmo, evitadas. Tendo em vista que a prevenção contra incêndios deve ser constante, a identificação de focos de queimadas é essencial para uma intervenção imediata. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar as ocorrências de queimadas e incêndios no Pantanal Sul-Mato-Grossense, associadas às variáveis meteorológicas e realizar uma modelagem de previsão. As variáveis envolvidas nesse processo foram extraídas da base de dados do Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) e do banco de dados meteorológicos para ensino e pesquisa do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). Foram observadas que a temperatura, umidade relativa e radiação solar, possuem um relacionamento estreito com a ocorrência dos focos e as correlações resultantes foram satisfatórias para a aplicação das modelagens de previsão. A técnica de Regressão Linear Múltipla apresentou 41% de ajustamento e a técnica de Análise Auto-regressiva Integrada de Médias Móveis apresentou ajustamento de 66,5% e desempenho geral de 68,4%, tornando-a a metodologia mais recomendada para a previsão.Palavras-chave: monitoramento ambiental, bioma pantanal, prevenção de queimadas, previsão de fogo.

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“…These forecasts were based essentially on historical values (business as usual scenario) and could quickly become obsolete in the case of adopting innovative fire prevention strategies or emerging better or worse environmental conditions in the study area. These results were close to those of Boubeta et al [62] and Viganó et al [63], who respectively used the ARIMA models for the prediction of burned areas in Spain and the occurrence of forest fires in the Pantanal in Brazil. To increase the confidence and relevance of our results, it would be very useful for similar analyses to be conducted within the study area or in other watersheds of the country, such as Bandama and Comoé, which are also undergoing wildfires.…”

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“…In 2020 around 30% of the entire Pantanal area burned (e.g., Mega, 2020). Fires in the Pantanal are predominantly human‐caused (e.g., Vigano et al., 2018).…”

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