Preventive Measures and Active Response against COVID-19 Taken by All Four Provinces, Two Independent Territories, and the Federal State of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Islamabad

Imran, Muhammad; Ahmad, Bashir; Maqbool, Farhan; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Malik, Muhammad Arshad; Aziz, Shahid; Rasheed, Faisal; Akhter, Tayyab Saeed

doi:10.1080/19371918.2021.2011524

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“…The government introduced various measures over time to control the spread of coronavirus in the country. It includes containment measures, border control, quarantine houses, countrywide smart lockdowns, cordoning off areas, testing and contact tracing, establishing a field epidemiology laboratory program with the help of WHO, implementation of SOPs, initiation of an awareness campaign, production of ventilators, and other economic measures [3][4][5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Pandemic Data Modeling in Pakistan Using Time-Series SIR

Taimoor

Ali

Shah

et al. 2022

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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Pakistan is currently facing the fourth wave of the deadly coronavirus, which was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. This work utilizes the epidemiological models to analyze Pakistan’s COVID-19 data. The basic susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) model is studied assuming Bayesian and time-series SIR (tSIR) approaches. Many studies have been conducted from different perspectives, but to the best of our knowledge, no study is available using the SIR models for Pakistan. The coronavirus incubation period has been set to 14 days across the globe; however, this study noticed that the assumption of 14 days is not suitable for Pakistan’s data. Furthermore, on the basis of R 0 , we infer that COVID-19 is not a pandemic in Pakistan, as it was in other nations, such as the United States, India, Brazil, and Italy, among others. We attribute this to the best strategy adopted by the Government of Pakistan to minimize the burden of COVID-19 cases in Pakistani hospitals. It is also noticed that the posterior-based SIR (pSIR) model with uniform prior to R 0 and Poisson distribution (of log-likelihood) provides better results as compared to other distributions. From time-series SIR (tSIR), we observed that the value of the reporting rate ρ is less than 1 which means that cases are underreported.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%