Preventing COVID-19 spread in closed facilities by regular testing of employees – an efficient intervention in long-term care facilities and prisons?

Obama, Henri Christian Junior Tsoungui; Adil, Mahmood; Alawam, N. Looli; Ngougoue, M N Pierre; Ngwa, Gideon A.; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I.; Schneider, Kristan A.

doi:10.1101/2020.10.12.20211573

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(31 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In fact, 50% of COVID-19-related deaths occur in long-term care facilities (LTCFs), although less than 1% of the German populations live inside such a facility. Under thorough contact reducing measures, the spread of COVID-19 inside LTCFs can be efficiently maintained by regularly testing employees [31]. Concerning the interpretations of our results, mortality has to be understood qualitatively rather than quantitatively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns accounting for antibody-dependent enhancement

Adil

Obama

Mbeutchou

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BackgroundCOVID-19 vaccines are approved, vaccination campaigns are launched, and worldwide return to normality seems within close reach. Nevertheless, concerns about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines arose, due to their fast emergency approval. In fact, the problem of antibody-dependent enhancement was raised in the context of COVID-19 vaccines.Methods and findingsWe introduce a complex extension of the model underlying the pandemic preparedness tool CovidSim 1.1 (http://covidsim.eu/) to optimize vaccination strategies with regard to the onset of campaigns, vaccination coverage, vaccination schedules, vaccination rates, and efficiency of vaccines. Vaccines are not assumed to immunize perfectly. Some individuals fail to immunize, some reach only partial immunity, and – importantly – some develop antibody-dependent enhancement, which increases the likelihood of developing symptomatic and severe episodes (associated with higher case fatality) upon infection. Only a fraction of the population will be vaccinated, reflecting vaccination hesitancy or contraindications.We parameterized the model to reflect the situation in Germany and predict increasing incidence (and prevalence) in early 2021 followed by a decline by summer. Assuming contact reductions (curfews, social distancing, etc.) to be lifted in summer, disease incidence will peak again. Fast vaccine deployment contributes to reduce disease incidence in the first quarter of 2021, and delay the epidemic outbreak after the summer season. Higher vaccination coverage results in a delayed and reduced epidemic peak. A coverage of 75% – 80% is necessary to prevent an epidemic peak without further drastic contact reductions.ConclusionsWith the vaccine becoming available, compliance with contact reductions is likely to fade. To prevent further economic damage from COVID-19, high levels of immunization need to be reached before next year’s flu season, and vaccination strategies and disease management need to be flexibly adjusted. The predictive model can serve as a refined decision support tool for COVID-19 management.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns accounting for antibody-dependent enhancement

Adil

Obama

Mbeutchou

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In fact, 50% of COVID-19-related deaths occur in longterm care facilities (LTCFs), although less than 1% of the German populations live inside such a facility. Under thorough contact reducing measures, the spread of COVID-19 inside LTCFs can be efficiently maintained by regularly testing employees [31]. Concerning the interpretations of our results, mortality has to be understood qualitatively rather than quantitatively.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 90%

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns accounting for antibody-dependent enhancement

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background COVID-19 vaccines are approved, vaccination campaigns are launched, and worldwide return to normality seems within close reach. Nevertheless, concerns about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines arose, due to their fast emergency approval. In fact, the problem of antibody-dependent enhancement was raised in the context of COVID-19 vaccines. Methods and findings We introduce a complex extension of the model underlying the pandemic preparedness tool CovidSim 1.1 (http://covidsim.eu/) to optimize vaccination strategies with regard to the onset of campaigns, vaccination coverage, vaccination schedules, vaccination rates, and efficiency of vaccines. Vaccines are not assumed to immunize perfectly. Some individuals fail to immunize, some reach only partial immunity, and—importantly—some develop antibody-dependent enhancement, which increases the likelihood of developing symptomatic and severe episodes (associated with higher case fatality) upon infection. Only a fraction of the population will be vaccinated, reflecting vaccination hesitancy or contraindications. The model is intended to facilitate decision making by exploring ranges of parameters rather than to be fitted by empirical data. We parameterized the model to reflect the situation in Germany and predict increasing incidence (and prevalence) in early 2021 followed by a decline by summer. Assuming contact reductions (curfews, social distancing, etc.) to be lifted in summer, disease incidence will peak again. Fast vaccine deployment contributes to reduce disease incidence in the first quarter of 2021, and delay the epidemic outbreak after the summer season. Higher vaccination coverage results in a delayed and reduced epidemic peak. A coverage of 75%–80% is necessary to prevent an epidemic peak without further drastic contact reductions. Conclusions With the vaccine becoming available, compliance with contact reductions is likely to fade. To prevent further economic damage from COVID-19, high levels of immunization need to be reached before next year’s flu season, and vaccination strategies and disease management need to be flexibly adjusted. The predictive model can serve as a refined decision support tool for COVID-19 management.

show abstract

“…Here, we introduce a mathematical model to study the effect of increased mortality due to the presence of multiple viral variants due to multiple infectious contacts (super-infections). The model extends the one from the freely available pandemic preparedness tool CovidSIM [20], which was also generalized in a very different way to study COVID-19 in closed facilities [21]. We study the effect of general contact reduction and case isolation measures on the extent of super-infections and its derived increased mortality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, the effect of a second lockdown is investigated. The presentation follows the structure of [20] and [21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is increased mortality by multiple exposures to COVID-19 an overseen factor when aiming for herd immunity?

Helle

Sadiku

Zelleke

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Governments across the globe responded with different strategies to the COVID-19 pandemic. While some countries adapted draconic measures, which have been perceived controversial others pursued a strategy aiming for herd immunity. The latter is even more controversial and has been called unethical by the WHO Director-General. Inevitably, without proper control measure, viral diversity increases and multiple infectious exposures become common, when the pandemic reaches its maximum. This harbors not only a potential threat overseen by simplified theoretical arguments in support of herd immunity, but also deserves attention when assessingresponse measures to increasing numbers of infection. Methods and findings: We extend the simulation model underlying the pandemic preparedness web interface CovidSim 1.1 (http://covidsim.eu/) to study the hypothetical effect of increased morbidity and mortality due to 'multi infections', either acquired at by successive infective contacts during the course of one infection or by a single infective contact with a multi-infected individual. The simulations are adjusted to reflect roughly the situation in the East Coast of the USA. We assume a phase of general contact reduction ('lockdown') at the beginning of the epidemic and additional case-isolation measures. We study the hypothetical effects of varying enhancements in morbidity and mortality, different likelihoods of multi-infected individuals to spread multi infections and different susceptibility to multi infectious in different disease phases. It is demonstrated that multi infections lead to a slight reduction in the number of infections, as these are more likely to get isolated due to their higher morbidity. However, the latter substantially increases the number of deaths. Furthermore, simulations indicate that a potential second lockdown can substantially decrease the epidemic peak, the number of multi-infections and deaths. Conclusions: Enhanced morbidity and mortality due to multiple disease exposure is a potential threat in the COVID-19 pandemic that deserves more attention. Particularly it underlines another facet questioning disease management strategies aiming for herd immunity

show abstract

Preventing COVID-19 spread in closed facilities by regular testing of employees – an efficient intervention in long-term care facilities and prisons?

Cited by 4 publications

References 48 publications

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns accounting for antibody-dependent enhancement

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns accounting for antibody-dependent enhancement

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns accounting for antibody-dependent enhancement

Is increased mortality by multiple exposures to COVID-19 an overseen factor when aiming for herd immunity?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About