Prevalence of Problematic Cocaine Consumption in a City of Southern Europe, Using Capture-Recapture with a Single List

Abstract

This study aims to determine the magnitude and characteristics of problematic cocaine consumption in the city of Barcelona, Spain. Capture-recapture with a single source was used to estimate prevalence. Log-linear regression models with interaction terms were fitted to the total sample and to subgroups according to other drugs consumed. Emergency room indicator data were obtained from the Barcelona Drug Information System. Drug-related emergencies of Barcelona residents for 1999 were analyzed. During 1999, a total of 4,035 drug-related emergencies were seen in Barcelona hospitals. Of these, 1,656 (41%) involved cocaine consumption; 41% of these patients had consumed cocaine with an opiate; 29% used cocaine with other substances; and 30% used cocaine alone. It was estimated that there was a total of 25,988 problematic cocaine users (95% confidence interval 11,782-58,064), yielding a rate of 31.27 per 1,000 inhabitants aged 15 to 54 years (95% confidence interval 14.2-69.9). The number of cocaine-related emergencies was high enough to allow capture-recapture to be applied, thus obtaining an estimate of the prevalence of problematic cocaine consumption, and high enough to characterize users according to different profiles. The use of capture-recapture with a single source can be interesting for problems related to the urban context.

Capturing crack cocaine use: estimating the prevalence of crack cocaine use in London using capture–recapture with covariates

“…The estimation of crack cocaine‐using populations is thus possible in other locations, where there are three or more data sources available from different settings that record person‐based data indicating crack cocaine use. Other studies of cocaine use have used a single data source, which we think is less preferable given the range of assumptions underpinning the method [33].…”

“…Indirect methods have been used increasingly to estimate the size of hidden populations. Capture–recapture is an ‘indirect’ method used widely to assess under‐ascertainment of disease surveys and to estimate ‘hard‐to‐reach populations’ such as sex workers, homeless and injecting drug users, and has been used for cocaine use [27–33]. In this paper two methods for the indirect estimation of the size of the problematic crack cocaine‐using population are piloted for 12 Boroughs in London: capture–recapture and a ratio‐estimation method which had been suggested for estimating the prevalence of cocaine use [34].…”

Más de treinta años de drogas ilegales en España: una amarga historia con algunos consejos para el futuro

“…En cualquier caso, la cocaína provoca ya muchos problemas sanitarios, superando claramente a la heroína como causa de primeras admisiones a tratamiento por dependencia o de urgencias hospitalarias 8,15,39,45 . Se estima que en España en 2005 el número de personas admitidas a tratamiento por dependencia de cocaína pudo situarse en torno a 25.000 8,14,15 , y que en Barcelona en la población de 15-54 años hay un 3,3% (IC95%:1,4%-7,0%) de consumidores problemáticos de drogas que usan cocaína 46 .…”