Prevalence, mortality and risk factors for self-reported COPD among smokers and never smokers, NHANES 1999-2018

Abstract

INTRODUCTION Cigarette smoke is the main risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but 25% to 50% of cases occur in non-smokers. In the US, limited recent national data compare COPD prevalence between smokers and never smokers. Furthermore, our study seeks to explore the prevalence and mortality of self-reported COPD among smokers (including current smokers and ex-smokers) and never smokers in the US from 1999 to 2018, and to identify the risk factors and differences. METHODS This cross-sectional analysis used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999–2018. Age-standardized prevalence of self-reported COPD among current smokers, ex-smokers, and never smokers was calculated using sample weights and 2010 US Census estimates. Risk factors were evaluated through weighted logistic regression models. Subsequently, participants who enrolled in the study cohort were followed until 31 December 2019, to determine all-cause mortality rates. RESULTS Between 1999 and 2018, the weighted prevalence of COPD among current smokers, ex-smokers, and never smokers in the U.S. was 12.6%, 9.6%, and 4.1%, respectively. The mortality rates observed were 21.1% among current smokers with COPD, 29% among ex-smokers with COPD, and 12% among never smokers with COPD. Over this period, among the general population in the U.S., the proportion of current smokers has declined, the proportion of never smokers has increased, and the proportion of ex-smokers has remained relatively stable. From 1999 to 2018, COPD prevalence rose from 13.7% to 21.9% among current smokers, stayed at 10.1% among ex-smokers, and dropped from 4.9% to 3.3% among never smokers. Independent risk factors for COPD across all groups included being female, older, and lower income. In particular, US citizens and non-Hispanic Whites (among ex-smokers and never smokers) were at higher risk compared to their counterparts. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence and all-cause mortality of COPD among current smokers and ex-smokers remain elevated. Although the prevalence of COPD among never smokers is gradually declining, it continues to be significant, thereby maintaining a substantial burden of disease. Furthermore, common independent risk factors for COPD across current smokers, ex-smokers, and never smokers include female gender, advanced age, lower income, and deviations from normal body weight whether overweight or underweight.