Press Pass: Payoffs to Media Exposure Among National Football League (NFL) Wide Receivers

Abstract

The authors examine Wide Receivers drafted into the National Football League (NFL) to test competing superstar theories related to both talent and popularity. The authors use player performance variables and media exposure in the popular press prior to the draft to explore whether talent and popularity can explain differences in salaries and NFL draft order. The authors find evidence of superstar effects stemming from player popularity but not performance even after controlling for measured physical attributes. The authors also find that tangible measures of player quality are valuable signals. Consistent with expectations, faster and more accomplished college receivers are drafted earlier and earn more.

Outcome Uncertainty, the Superstar Effect, Talent and Live Attendance in Professional Boxing

“…The results found herein are consistent both with the work of Borland & Macdonald (2003), which demonstrated that short-run UOO (for example, as measured by a single sporting event) does not have a statistically significant impact on attendance and the work on SP in the broad sense (Rosen, 1981;Adler, 1985 andBoorstin, 1992), in team sports (Noll, 1974, Treme & Allen, 2011Jewell, 2015 andLewis &Yoon, 2016) and individual sports (Tainsky, Salaga & Santos, 2013;Reeth, 2013 andGooding &Stephenson, 2016). However, these findings do not substantiate the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis or the value of talent (as measured by knockout percentage or if the bout featured an Olympic medalist in boxing) as driving attendance demand for live boxing matches.…”

Productivity Shocks and Labour Market Outcomes for Top Earners: Evidence from Italian Serie A

“…Other studies (e.g. Mullin and Dunn, , Treme and Allen, ) focus on American professional sports, finding a positive effect of both measures of performance and media exposure on the entry earnings of baseball (MLB) and basketball (NBA) players.…”

To draft or not to draft? A systematic review of North American sports’ entry draft

“…As viewership and other fan-related concerns are important considerations for a team, it is plausible some draft decisions could be influenced by the intention to "please the crowd". For instance, Treme and Allen 15 tested whether talent and popularity explained the emergence of rookie wide receivers in the NFL in the 2001-2006 seasons. The authors found evidence that a player's media exposure prior to the draft helped explain the variation in both draft rank and first-year salary.…”

“…Whether this is conscious or sub-conscious, taking short cuts in the decision-making process is a common and even probable occurrence. With the exception of Treme and Allen, 15 however, evidence (beyond anecdotal support) is quite sparse. This speaks to the need for research investigating such influences in the context of athlete selection.…”

“…Therefore, when executed effectively, there should be a relationship between the order in which players are chosen in the draft and their playing performance in the professional league. 1,15 However, there is both anecdotal support and peer-reviewed evidence questioning the ability of sport executives/team managers to make the most cost-effective selections of athletes to their teams. 1 For example, work by Massey and Thaler 16 suggests the NFL draft choices are "economically inefficient," where managers overvalue early draft choices relative to later draft choices.…”