Presidential Risk Orientation and Force Employment Decisions

Abstract

In this article, we explore how presidential risk orientations affect force employment decisions through an analysis of the use of unmanned weaponry during the Bush and Obama administrations. We hypothesize that the conception of risk plays an integral part in this choice of weaponry. In order to examine our hypothesis, we utilize the verbs-in-context system of operational code analysis to quantify the risk propensities of President Bush and President Obama during the Afghanistan War from 2001 to 2013. At the aggregate level, we find that the two presidents exhibit unique interpretations of risk with respect to manned versus unmanned weaponry. We further disaggregate our data to examine whether these preferences are fixed or fluctuate with situational changes. We find that President Bush’s risk calculations are influenced by a number of situational variables, highlighting the importance of changing decision contexts in explaining risk behaviors. President Obama’s risk calculations, on the other hand, remain constant over time lending credence to the importance of overall risk propensity in determining risk-taking behaviors. Our findings indicate that risk is an important variable in explaining the means of force employed during conflict, and that the source of this behavior can vary by leader.

Wargame of Drones: Remotely Piloted Aircraft and Crisis Escalation

“…Because of the lower costs associated with drone operations, scholars commonly argue that drones expand the range of issues for which states are willing to deploy force (Kaag and Kreps 2014; Boyle 2020). Scholars find U.S. presidents (Macdonald and Schneider 2017), national security bureaucrats (Schulman 2018), and the American public are more likely to support the deployment of drones than inhabited platforms (Walsh and Schulzke 2018). 8 Focusing on how drones affect the initial use of force is important, but overlooks whether drone use influences the subsequent arc of a crisis.…”

Governing risks in international security

“…Individuals are, for instance, risk-seeking when confronted with choices between losses and risk-averse when confronted with choices between gains (prospect theory, Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). While this insight has previously been applied to the field of foreign policy crisis management (McDermott, 1998), research about the risk calculations political and military leaders make when sending troops in harm's way is still at an early stage of development (e.g., Friedman, Lerner, & Zeckhauser, 2017;Haerem, Kuvaas, Bakken, & Karlsen, 2011;Kertzer, 2017;Macdonald & Schneider, 2017;Saunders, 2011;Trenta, 2016).…”