Presidential Approval and Public Security in Mexico's War on Crime

Abstract

To fight criminal organizations effectively, governments require support from significant segments of society. Citizen support provides important leverage for executives, allowing them to continue their policies. Yet winning citizens' hearts and minds is not easy. Public security is a deeply complex issue. Responsibility is shared among different levels of government; information is highly mediated by mass media and individual acquaintances; and security has a strong effect on peoples' emotions, since it threatens to affect their most valuable assets-life and property. How do citizens translate their assessments of public security into presidential approval? To answer this question, this study develops explicit theoretical insights into the conditions under which different dimensions of public security affect presidential approval. The arguments are tested using Mexico as a case study.T his study analyzes the impact that citizens' assessments of security issues have on presidential approval. Specifically, it delves into the specific conditions that prompt citizens to punish or reward the chief executive. Little is known about the impact public security issues have on presidential approval. The bulk of the literature has focused on analyzing the impact of the economy and foreign affairs on an executive's job approval. 1 The relationship between crime and performance evaluations has usually been the domain of local politics. However, due to the significant increase in crime and violence in many countries around the globe, the responsibility for public security has partially shifted away from local governments toward the national sphere of government.

Presidents’ Sex and Popularity: Baselines, Dynamics and Policy Performance

“…Models III and IV suggest the popularity of female leaders is, indeed, more sensitive than that of male leaders to terrorist attacks and homicide rates. The middle graph in Figure 4 illustrates that an upturn in terrorist attacks neither boosts nor tanks male leaders’ approval, possibly due to countervailing effects of ‘rally-round-the-flag’ and security failures (Carlin, Love, and Martínez-Gallardo 2015b; Romero, Magaloni, and Díaz-Cayeros 2016). 13 But an escalation in terror attacks erodes female leaders’ public standing.…”

Torture as a Method of Criminal Prosecution: Democratization, Criminal Justice Reform, and the Mexican Drug War

“…Other scholars have also argued that the Drug War increased human rights abuses (Escalante, 2011;Anaya, 2014;Silva Forné et al, 2012). Calderón's security strategies received significant support from the public even as violence was increasing (Romero et al, 2016). According to survey evidence using list experiments, over a third of the voting age population endorsed the practice of torture when used "against drug traffickers" (Osorio, 2016).…”

Political Elites, Crime, and Trust in the Police in Latin America

“…Other individual factors predictive of trust in the CJS in Latin America are victim status, fear of crime, and police bribery. Those who identify as having been a victim of crime in the past year report lower levels of trust in the police and institutions in general (Ahmad, Hubickey, & McNamara, 2011; Carreras, 2013; Romero, Magaloni, & Diaz-Cayeros, 2016). Fear of crime in one’s neighborhood produces similar results (Ahmad et al, 2011; Boateng, 2016; Carreras, 2013; Malone, 2010).…”