Abnormalities of mineral metabolism are associated with increased mortality in patients with ESRD, but their effects in predialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) are less well characterized. In this study, the associations between levels of serum phosphorus, calcium, and calcium-phosphorus product and progression of CKD were examined. Historical data were collected on 985 male US veterans (age 67.4 ؎ 10.9; 23.9% black) with CKD stages 1 through 5. Unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted relative risks for progressive CKD (defined as the composite of ESRD or doubling of serum creatinine) were calculated for categories of serum phosphorus, calcium, and calcium-phosphorus product using Cox proportional hazards models. A bnormalities of bone and mineral metabolism are associated with higher mortality in patients who have ESRD and are on dialysis (1). Whereas abnormalities in calcium and phosphorus metabolism are present already in patients who have chronic kidney disease (CKD) and are not yet on dialysis (2), their impact on outcomes in this patient population is less well described. Dietary protein restriction has been associated with slower progression of CKD (3). This benefit has been attributed in part to the dietary phosphorus restriction that occurs as a result of the lower protein intake (4 -8), but the underlying mechanisms of action still are not fully understood. It also is unclear whether actual serum phosphorus levels and other markers of disordered bone and mineral metabolism (e.g., serum calcium, calcium-phosphorus product) are associated with progression of kidney disease in patients with CKD. We examined the association of baseline levels of serum phosphorus, calcium, and calciumphosphorus product with renal functional outcomes in a wellcharacterized cohort of US veterans who had CKD stages 1 through 5 and were not yet on dialysis.
Materials and Methods
Study Population and OutcomesWe collected data in a historical prospective cohort of patients who were referred to a single outpatient nephrology clinic between January 1, 1990, and June 30, 2005, at Salem Veterans Affairs Medical Center (VAMC). After exclusion of patients with a kidney transplant, patients who were on renal replacement therapy (RRT), and patients referred for problems other than CKD, 1012 patients with CKD stages 1 through 5 were identified. Of these, 16 (1.6%) patients had no serum phosphorus measurement available and were excluded from further analyses. Because there were only 11 female patients in the cohort, they also were excluded from further analyses. The final analysis included 985 patients.Patients were followed until death or until August 31, 2005, with the recording of death from all causes, the initiation of RRT, and the doubling of baseline serum creatinine level. Patients were categorized as lost to follow-up when they had no contact with the medical center for Ͼ6 mo. Deaths were recorded from the VA computerized patient record system and cross-checked with death certificate-based data that were obtained from the National ...