Present patterns of decelerating–accelerating seismic strain in South Japan

Abstract

Decelerating generation of preshocks in a narrow (seismogenic) region and accelerating generation of other preshocks in a broader (critical) region, called decelerating-accelerating seismic strain (D-AS) model has been proposed as appropriate for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. An attempt is made in the present work to identify such seismic strain patterns and estimate the corresponding probably ensuing large mainshocks (M ≥ 7.0) in south Japan (30)(31)(32)(33)(34)(35)(36)(37)(38) • N, 130-138 • E). Two such patterns have been identified and the origin time, magnitude, and epicenter coordinates for each of the two corresponding probably ensuing mainshocks have been estimated. Model uncertainties of predicted quantities are also given to allow an objective for-

Geospace perturbations induced by the Earth: The state of the art and future trends

“…A stable outcome in time of the different parameters can be a reliable indication for an impending earthquake (De Santis et al, 2010). Sometime AMR can been considered in combination with a seismic deceleration that occurs almost in the same area, resulting in a more robust identification of the impending earthquake epicenter (Papazachos et al, 2010).…”

A statistical feature of anomalous seismic activity prior to large shallow earthquakes in Japan revealed by the pattern informatics method

“…Therefore, investigation of temporal changes in seismic activity is essential to understand temporal variations in such stress and may, in turn, provide information regarding the possibility of occurrence of future large earthquakes. Temporal changes in seismic activity before large earthquakes have been reported for various regions including Alaska (Bufe et al, 1994;Kisslinger and Kindel, 1994), California (Bowman et al, 1998;Bowman and King, 2001;Bufe and Varnes, 1993;Jaume and Sykes, 1999;Papazachos et al, 2005;Resenberg and Matthews, 1988;Sobolev, 2003;Stuart, 1991;Sykes and Jaume, 1990), central Asia (particularly the IndiaEurasia collision zone; Zheng et al, 1995), China (Wei et al, 1978;Yu et al, 2011), Greece (Karakaisis et al, 2002;(Huang et al, 2001;Mogi, 1969;Nagao et al, 2011;Ogata, 2004Ogata, , 2005Resenberg and Matthews, 1988;Papazachos et al, 2010;Katsumata, 2011aKatsumata, , 2011b, Russia (Borovik et al, 1971), Taiwan (Chen, 2003;Chen et al, 2005Chen et al, , 2006Chen and Wu, 2006;Wu and Chiao, 2006;Wu and Chen, 2007;Wu et al, 2008aWu et al, , 2008bWu et al, , 2011, and Turkey (Öztürk and Bayrak, 2012).…”

A statistical feature of anomalous seismic activities prior to large shallow earthquakes in Japan revealed by the Pattern Informatics method

“…Therefore, investigation of temporal changes in seismic activity is essential to understand temporal variations in such stress and may, in turn, provide information regarding the possibility of occurrence of future large earthquakes. Temporal changes in seismic activity before large earthquakes have been reported for various regions including Alaska (Bufe et al, 1994;Kisslinger and Kindel, 1994), California (Bowman et al, 1998;Bowman and King, 2001;Bufe and Varnes, 1993;Jaume and Sykes, 1999;Papazachos et al, 2005;Resenberg and Matthews, 1988;Sobolev, 2003;Stuart, 1991;Sykes and Jaume, 1990), central Asia (particularly the India-Eurasia collision zone; Zheng et al, 1995), China (Wei et al, 1978;Yu et al, 2011), Greece (Karakaisis et al, 2002;Papazachos et al, 2005), Italy (Console et al, 2000), Japan (Huang et al, 2001;Mogi, 1969;Nagao et al, 2011;Ogata, 2004Ogata, , 2005Resenberg and Matthews, 1988;Papazachos et al, 2010;Katsumata, 2011aKatsumata, , 2011b, Russia (Borovik et al, 1971), Taiwan (Chen, 2003;Chen et al, 2005Chen and Wu, 2006;Wu and Chiao, 2006;Wu and Chen, 2007;Wu et al, 2008aWu et al, , 2008bWu et al, , 2011, and Turkey (Öztürk and Bayrak, 2012).…”