Present-Day Atmospheric Simulations Using GISS ModelE: Comparison to In Situ, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Ruedy, R.; Hansen, James E.; Aleinov, Igor; Bell, N.; Bauer, Michael; Bauer, Susanne E.; Cairns, Brian; Canuto, V. M.; Cheng, Yafang; Genio, Anthony D. Del; Faluvegi, G.; Friend, A. D.; Hall, Tim; Hu, Yongyun; Kelley, M.; Kiang, Nancy Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K.; Miller, Ron; Nazarenko, Larissa; Oinas, Valdar; Perlwitz, J. P.; Perlwitz, Judith; Rind, David; Romanou, Anastasia; Russell, Gary L.; Sato, Makiko; Shindell, D. T.; Stone, Peter H.; Sun, Shan; Tausnev, N.; Thresher, D.; Yao, Mao‐Sung

doi:10.1175/jcli3612.1

Cited by 851 publications

(615 citation statements)

References 145 publications

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“…We used a fully coupled atmosphere͞ocean GCM (Goddard Institute for Space Studies MODELE) that is also being used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 (29). Water isotopes are included in the atmosphere (30), sea ice, and ocean (31) and were tracked through all stages of the hydrologic cycle.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event

LeGrande

Schmidt

Shindell

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

178

163

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Isotope, aerosol, and methane records document an abrupt cooling event across the Northern Hemisphere at 8.2 kiloyears before present (kyr), while separate geologic lines of evidence document the catastrophic drainage of the glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway into the Hudson Bay at approximately the same time. This melt water pulse may have been the catalyst for a decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and subsequent cooling around the Northern Hemisphere. However, lack of direct evidence for ocean cooling has lead to speculation that this abrupt event was purely local to Greenland and called into question this proposed mechanism. We simulate the response to this melt water pulse using a coupled general circulation model that explicitly tracks water isotopes and with atmosphere-only experiments that calculate changes in atmospheric aerosol deposition (specifically 10 Be and dust) and wetland methane emissions. The simulations produce a short period of significantly diminished North Atlantic Deep Water and are able to quantitatively match paleoclimate observations, including the lack of isotopic signal in the North Atlantic. This direct comparison with multiple proxy records provides compelling evidence that changes in ocean circulation played a major role in this abrupt climate change event.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event

LeGrande

Schmidt

Shindell

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

178

163

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Table II. As in Table I, column 1, but with output from GISS-ER (Schmidt et al, 2006 Since there is no extraneous contamination possible in the model runs, and since the results are not consistent across all runs (which could be indicative of a forced response to perhaps, aerosol, ozone forcing or land use change, all of which are represented (albeit imperfectly) within these simulations), the only remaining conclusion is that these correlations are due to intrinsic 'weather' variability within the models. It is therefore necessary to look a little deeper into what the source of these correlations are.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Analyses were made of various simulations using GISS ModelE archive for the 20th Century, using estimates of all appropriate forcings (see Schmidt et al (2006) and Hansen et al (2007) for details). Specifically, 4 ensemble members from an AMIP-style simulation including all forcings (AMIPf8) were used, and 5 ensemble members of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model GISS-ER 20th Century simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spurious correlations between recent warming and indices of local economic activity

Schmidt

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:A series of climate model simulations of the 20th Century are analysed to investigate a number of published correlations between indices of local economic activity and recent global warming. These correlations have been used to support a hypothesis that the observed surface warming record has been contaminated in some way and thus overestimates true global warming. However, the basis of the results are correlations over a very restricted set of locations (predominantly western Europe, Japan and the USA) which project strongly onto naturally occurring patterns of climate variability, or are with fields with significant amounts of spatial auto-correlation. Across model simulations, the correlations vary widely due to the chaotic weather component in any short-term record. The reported correlations do not fall outside the simulated distribution, and are probably spurious (i.e. are likely to have arisen from chance alone). Thus, though this study cannot prove that the global temperature record is unbiased, there is no compelling evidence from these correlations of any large-scale contamination. Published in

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“…Atmospheric circulation and associated changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were simulated by ModelE, a general circulation model (GCM) (Schmidt et al 2006) from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Robock et al 2007). For more details on the climate model results, please see Xia and Robock (2012).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on soybean and maize production in the Midwest United States

2012

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Crop production would decline in the Midwestern United States from climate change following a regional nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic agroecosystem model, we simulated the response of maize and soybeans to cooler, drier, and darker conditions from war-related smoke. We combined observed climate conditions for the states of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri with output from a general circulation climate model simulation that injected 5 Tg of elemental carbon into the upper troposphere. Both maize and soybeans showed notable yield reductions for a decade after the event. Maize yields declined 10-40 % while soybean yields dropped 2-20 %. Temporal variation in magnitude of yield for both crops generally followed the variation in climatic anomalies, with the greatest decline in the 5 years following the 5 Tg event and then less, but still substantial yield decline, for the rest of the decade. Yield reduction for both crops was linked to changes in growing period duration and, less markedly, to reduced precipitation and altered maximum daily temperature during the growing season. The seasonal average of daily maximum temperature anomalies, combined with precipitation and radiation changes, had a quadratic relationship to yield differences; small (0°C) and large (−3°C) maximum temperature anomalies combined with other changes led to increased yield loss, but medium

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Present-Day Atmospheric Simulations Using GISS ModelE: Comparison to In Situ, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data

Cited by 851 publications

References 145 publications

Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event

Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event

Spurious correlations between recent warming and indices of local economic activity

Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on soybean and maize production in the Midwest United States

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