Present and future land surface and wet bulb temperatures in the Arabian Peninsula

Abstract

The Arabian Peninsula exhibits extreme hot summers and has one of the world's largest population growth. We use satellite observations and reanalysis as well as climate model projections to analyze morning and evening land surface temperatures (LST), to refer to processes at the surface, and wet bulb temperatures (WBT) to measure human heat stress. We focus on three regions: The Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, the inland capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh and the irrigated agricultural region in Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia. This study shows that the time of the day is important when studying LST and WBT, with current and future WBT higher in the early summer evenings. It also shows that the effect of humidity brought from waterbodies or through irrigation can significantly increase heat stress. Over the coasts of the Peninsula, humidity decreases LST but increases heat stress via WBT values higher than 25°C in the evening. Riyadh, located in the heart of the Peninsula has lower WBT of 15°C to 17.5°C and LST reaching 42.5°C. Irrigation in the Al-Jouf province decreases LST by up to 10° with respect to its surroundings, while it increases WBT by up to 2.5°. Climate projections over the Arabian Peninsula suggest that global efforts will determine the survivability in this region. The projected increase in LST and WBT approaches +6° and +4°C respectively in the Persian Gulf and Riyadh by the end of the century, posing significant risk on human survivability in the Peninsula unless strict climate mitigation takes place.

Post-Sunset Humid-Heat Maxima near the Southern Persian/Arabian Gulf

“…Most pertinently, the Tw maximum along the Arabian Sea coast of western India occurs at night, in association with shallow boundary-layer heights. A similar phenomenon is apparent from or occasionally mentioned by previous work focused on Arabia 4,25 , but has never been explored in detail. The goal of this study is to validate and extend those preliminary ndings through assessment of four independent datasets, and to make sense of the results by placing them in regional meteorological context.…”

“…The latter develop on almost every summer day 23 , have a maximum near-surface speed on the Gulf south coast, and can extend far inland 22 . Wind direction strongly affects temperature and moisture, as do land-use modi cations such as irrigation or urban development 24,25 . Past global surveys of ocean-land extreme-heat connections have shown a strong relationship but have not focused on dynamics or on the Middle East 26 .…”

Heat Stress During Arba’een Foot‐Pilgrimage (World’s Largest Gathering) Projected to Reach “Dangerous” Levels Due To Climate Change

“…Arba'een is one of the largest annual mass gatherings, drawing millions of people to the holy city of Karbala in Iraq. A persistent increase in temperature is generally expected in the surrounding region, including most of Iraq, due to climate change (Safieddine et al, 2022;Zittis et al, 2016Zittis et al, , 2019Zittis et al, , 2021. The increase in temperature may possibly enhance heat-related morbidity and mortality during the Arba'een period when it coincides with future summers.…”

Extreme heat and work injuries in Kuwait’s hot summers

“…1 For countries in the Middle East, like Kuwait, hot summers are entering uncharted extreme heat territory. [2][3][4] In recent years, Kuwait has regularly recorded hourly and daily temperatures in excess of 50°C and 40°C, respectively. Hotter summers threaten workers' health in Kuwait.…”

“…Climate change has contributed to the last 7 years (2015–2021) being the seven hottest years on record, globally 1. For countries in the Middle East, like Kuwait, hot summers are entering uncharted extreme heat territory 2–4. In recent years, Kuwait has regularly recorded hourly and daily temperatures in excess of 50°C and 40°C, respectively.…”