Presence probability of Hemiscorpius lepturus Peters, 1861 using maximum entropy approach in the western areas of Zagros Mountains, Iran

Abstract

<jats:p>Aim: The purpose of this research was to use environmental variables for predicting the probability of Hemiscorpius lepturus existence in the provinces where situated in the west of the Zagros Mountains. Materials and Methods: In this study, 64 occurrence records of the H. lepturus were extracted from the published documents available in electronic databases. MaxEnt model was used for predicting the ecological niches of this species. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and 19 climatic variables were used as the environmental variables affecting the distribution of this scorpion. The Jackknife test in the model was used to indicate the importance of variables to predict the probability of the presence of the studied species. The logistic threshold that was evaluated using a logistic regression algorithm showed the converting of the probability model into a binary model. The model was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). The probability presence map of this scorpion was then prepared in ArcGIS 10.5 Software. Results: The results of the analysis showed that the most important environmental factor on the distribution of H. lepturus was the maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) with a contribution rate of 43% and permutation importance of 8%. The Jackknife test revealed that NDVI did not gain any value when it used independently in the model. The logistic threshold was reported 0.255 for the maximum test sensitivity plus specificity. The AUC of the model was 0.7698, shows an acceptable value for model validity. Overall the hot spots for this toxic scorpion seem to be in Khuzestan, Lorestan, and Ilam Provinces of the studied area. Conclusion: Regarding our findings, MaxEnt algorithm, in combination with geographic information system contributed to revealing the effects of environmental variables on the probability of H. lepturus presence in the west of Zagros Mountains. These visualized maps as a warning alarm can be helpful to policymakers for managing, controlling, and monitoring the scorpionism in high-risk areas.</jats:p>

Mapping current and future risk of scorpion sting from a species with low medical concern, Mesobuthus phillipsii (Scorpiones: Buthidae) in Iran

“…Different aspects of scorpion sting have been previously studied in Iran (Pipelzadeh et al 2007, Jalali et al 2010, Moosavy et al 2016, Alinejad et al 2017, Ebrahimi et al 2018, Najafian et al 2020). But their distribution patterns and ecology have been less studied (Shahi et al 2015, 2016, Dehghani and Kassiri 2017, Hanafi-Bojd et al 2020). Only in recent years, species distribution modeling methods and GIS have been used to map the geographical distribution of Iranian scorpions (Mirshamsi 2013, Haghani et al 2020, Hanafi-Bojd et al 2020).…”

“…But their distribution patterns and ecology have been less studied (Shahi et al 2015, 2016, Dehghani and Kassiri 2017, Hanafi-Bojd et al 2020). Only in recent years, species distribution modeling methods and GIS have been used to map the geographical distribution of Iranian scorpions (Mirshamsi 2013, Haghani et al 2020, Hanafi-Bojd et al 2020). In the present study, however, for the first time, villages at risk of scorpion stings were identified and mapped.…”

Potential distribution and effects of climate change on the risk of scorpion sting with endemic and medically important scorpion Odontobuthus doriae Thorell, 1876 (Arachnida: Scorpionidae: Buthidae) in Iran

“…Another study showed that mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) and precipitation during the coldest quarter (Bio19) affected the desirability of habitat for Odontobuthus doriae and Scorpio maurus, receptively (Haghani et al 2020). In addition, MaxEnt modeling showed that the most important environmental factor influencing the distribution of Hemiscorpius lepturus was the maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) (Hanafi-Bojd et al 2020). According to Chowell et al (2005), climatic conditions, dryness and heat are factors that increase the threat of being stung by a scorpion.…”