Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability

Ahuja, Amrita; Athey, Susan; Baker, A. Cornelius; Budish, Eric; Castillo, Juan Camilo; Glennerster, Rachel; Kominers, Scott Duke; Kremer, Michael; Lee, Jean Nahrae; Prendergast, Canice; Snyder, Christopher M.; Tabarrok, Alex; Tan, Brandon Joel; Więcek, Witold

doi:10.3386/w28492

Cited by 20 publications

(44 citation statements)

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“…We rely on an all-in cost estimate-instead of contracting solely on capacity with an option to buy doses in the future-both due to the simplicity of this approach and due to the potential increase in reluctance of companies to accept such option contracts as new global capacity comes online in 2022. Correspondingly, our costing is greater than the $3 per dose assumed by Ahuja and others. (2021).…”

Section: Speedmentioning

confidence: 65%

“…Given the significant downside risks, what is needed is upfront investment to ensure coverage including in downside scenarios and also to potentially address future needs for LMICs (for example, vaccination of children, booster doses). In this context, private incentives to invest in capacity and scale up production in a timely manner may be weak, especially if they are likely to face limits on pricing during the pandemic(Ahuja and others 2021;Castillo and others 2021). Thus, there is scope for greater government support to create at-risk capacity as was done by the US as part of its Operation Warp Speed.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic

Agarwal¹,

Gopinath²

2021

Staff Discussion Notes

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Authorized for distribution by Gita Gopinath DISCLAIMER: Staff Discussion Notes (SDNs) showcase policy-related analysis and research being developed by IMF staff members and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in Staff Discussion Notes are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.Urgent steps are needed to arrest the rising human toll and economic strain from the COVID-19 pandemic that are exacerbating already-diverging recoveries. Pandemic policy is also economic policy as there is no durable end to the economic crisis without an end to the health crisis. Building on existing initiatives, this paper proposes pragmatic actions at the national and multilateral level to expeditiously defeat the pandemic. The proposal targets: (1) vaccinating at least 40 percent of the population in all countries by the end of 2021 and at least 60 percent by the first half of 2022, (2) tracking and insuring against downside risks, and (3) ensuring widespread testing and tracing, maintaining adequate stocks of therapeutics, and enforcing public health measures in places where vaccine coverage is low.

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Section: Speedmentioning

confidence: 65%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic

Agarwal¹,

Gopinath²

2021

Staff Discussion Notes

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“…It may also lead to private underinvestment in research on other ways to accelerate vaccination. This suggests that such research may not be carried out without public funding ( 46 ).…”

Section: Gaps Between Commercial Incentives and Social Value Of Resea...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing fractional doses of COVID-19 vaccines

Więcek

Ahuja

Chaudhuri

et al. 2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Due to the enormous economic, health, and social costs of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are high expected social returns to investing in parallel in multiple approaches to accelerating vaccination. We argue there are high expected social returns to investigating the scope for lowering the dosage of some COVID-19 vaccines. While existing evidence is not dispositive, available clinical data on the immunogenicity of lower doses combined with evidence of a high correlation between neutralizing antibody response and vaccine efficacy suggests that half or even quarter doses of some vaccines could generate high levels of protection, particularly against severe disease and death, while potentially expanding supply by 450 million to 1.55 billion doses per month, based on supply projections for 2021. An epidemiological model suggests that, even if fractional doses are less effective than standard doses, vaccinating more people faster could substantially reduce total infections and deaths. The costs of further testing alternative doses are much lower than the expected public health and economic benefits. However, commercial incentives to generate evidence on fractional dosing are weak, suggesting that testing may not occur without public investment. Governments could support either experimental or observational evaluations of fractional dosing, for either primary or booster shots. Discussions with researchers and government officials in multiple countries where vaccines are scarce suggests strong interest in these approaches.

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“…Eine wichtige Maßnahme war, Impfstoffe verschiedener Technologien in großen Mengen und zu hohen garantierten Preisen bereits zu einem Zeitpunkt einzukaufen, zu dem noch nicht absehbar war, welche Impfstoffe überhaupt funktionieren und eine Zulassung erhalten würden. Die resultierenden Anreize haben die Entwicklung und den Ausbau der Impfstoffproduktion sowie die Produktion der Vor-und Zwischenprodukte während der Pandemie massiv beschleunigt (Ahuja et al, 2021;Castillo et al, 2021).…”

Section: Zeitgesprächunclassified

Pandemiebereitschaft, internationale Kooperation und Marktdesign

Ockenfels

2021

Wirtschaftsdienst

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Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability

Cited by 20 publications

References 1 publication

A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic

A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic

Testing fractional doses of COVID-19 vaccines

Pandemiebereitschaft, internationale Kooperation und Marktdesign

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