Premature mortality in India due to PM_2.5 and ozone exposure

Abstract

This bottom‐up modeling study, supported by new population census 2011 data, simulates ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure on local to regional scales. It quantifies, present‐day premature mortalities associated with the exposure to near‐surface PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in India using a regional chemistry model. We estimate that PM2.5 exposure leads to about 570,000 (CI95: 320,000–730,000) premature mortalities in 2011. On a national scale, our estimate of mortality by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to O3 exposure is about 12,000 people. The Indo‐Gangetic region accounts for a large part (~42%) of the estimated mortalities. The associated lost life expectancy is calculated as 3.4 ± 1.1 years for all of India with highest values found for Delhi (6.3 ± 2.2 years). The economic cost of estimated premature mortalities associated with PM2.5 and O3 exposure is about 640 (350–800) billion USD in 2011, which is a factor of 10 higher than total expenditure on health by public and private expenditure.

Source influence on emission pathways and ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution over India (2015–2050)

“…According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 37 cities from India feature in a list of 100 world cities with the highest PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameter <10 µm) pollution globally, with cities like Delhi, Raipur, Gwalior, and Lucknow listed among the top 10 polluted cities (WHO, 2014). Recent studies addressing air quality in India (Ghude et al 2016;Chakraborty et al 2015), have built upon products of the Task Force on 25…”

“…Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF-HTAP), using HTAP emission inventories (for 2010) in a regional chemistry model (Ghude et al 2016). Widespread PM2.5 and O3 pollution was found under present emission levels, which considerably impact human mortalities and life expectancy.…”

WRF-Chem simulated surface ozone over south Asia during the pre-monsoon: effects of emission inventories and chemical mechanisms

“…WRF-Chem simulated ozone distributions have also been utilized to assess the losses in crop yields, and it was suggested that the estimated crop losses would be sufficient to feed about 94 million people living below the poverty line in this region . Further, WRF-Chem has been used to estimate that premature mortality rate in India caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to surface O 3 exposure was ∼ 12 000 people in the year 2011 (Ghude et al, 2016). Despite these applications, there is room for improvement in modelled concentrations, as some limited studies evaluating ozone on diurnal scales revealed a significant overestimation of noontime ozone, e.g.…”

Can Delhi save itself from its toxic air?

“…Late last year, the levels prompted the Delhi High Court to declare the city a "gas chamber". The observed PM 2.5 amounts are estimated to cause as many as 16,000 premature deaths and 6 million asthma attacks 2 in Delhi annually, shaving around 6 years off the life expectancy of city residents 3 . Although the WHO data have brought attention to Delhi, the problem is global: according to the agency, particulate pollution affects more people than any other pollutant on Earth.…”