Preliminary study of the accuracies of the old and new medical college admission tests for predicting performance on USMLE Step 1

Swanson, David B.; Case, Susan M.; Koenig, Judith Anderson; Killian, Charles D.

doi:10.1097/00001888-199601000-00033

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…Our findings were also different than studies showing the revised MCAT to be a strong predictor of performance on the USMLE Step 1 (e.g., Swanson et al 1996). Using the path model, we found the MCAT to be only a moderate (though significant) predictor for both majority and minority students; this is consistent with the findings of a recent meta-analysis (Donnon et al 2007).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 75%

Analysis of factors that predict clinical performance in medical school

White

Dey

Fantone

2007

Adv in Health Sci Educ

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Academic achievement indices including GPAs and MCAT scores are used to predict the spectrum of medical student academic performance types. However, use of these measures ignores two changes influencing medical school admissions: student diversity and affirmative action, and an increased focus on communication skills. To determine if GPA and MCAT predict performance in medical school consistently across students, and whether either predicts clinical performance in clerkships. A path model was developed to examine relationships among indices of medical student performance during the first three years of medical school for five cohorts of medical students. A structural equation approach was used to calculate the coefficients hypothesized in the model for majority and minority students. Significant differences between majority and minority students were observed. MCAT scores, for example, did not predict performance of minority students in the first year of medical school but did predict performance of majority students. This information may be of use to medical school admissions and resident selection committees.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 75%

Analysis of factors that predict clinical performance in medical school

White

Dey

Fantone

2007

Adv in Health Sci Educ

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“…The MCAT written subtest was not included in this analysis since our initial regression anslyses indicated that it correlated R = .0 with all the variables. This same finding has been documented in other studies (Donnon et al 2007;Swanson et al 1996). Age was also included in the model because it was included in the multiple regression analyses and contributed significant variance, as well as retained notable loadings in the factor analysis.…”

Section: Data Analysessupporting

confidence: 67%

“…Traditionally, undergraduate science and total GPA and MCAT scores (specifically biological, physical, and verbal subtests) have been generally correlated with pre-clinical competence as measured by the USMLE Step 1, and the MCAT as a single variable is considered to be the best predictor of performance of medical school courses and Steps 1, 2, and 3 of the USMLE (Donnon et al 2007). In one study, Swanson and colleagues derived a predictive validity coefficient of r = .52 for MCAT total based on a large sample (n = 11,145) involving many medical schools (Swanson et al 1996). This study and others have shown that the MCAT adds unique input to predicting future performance, particularly in pre-clinical criterion measures (Koenig et al 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aptitude, achievement and competence in medicine: a latent variable path model

Collin

Violato

Hecker

2008

Adv in Health Sci Educ

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To develop and test a latent variable path model of general achievement, aptitude for medicine and competence in medicine employing data from the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), pre-medical undergraduate grade point average (UGPA) and demographic characteristics for competence in pre-clinical and measures of competence (United States Licensure Examination {USMLE} Steps 1, 2, and 3). Data were gathered on 839,710 participants from 1991 to 2000 on demographic and school variables, UGPA, MCAT subtest scores and Steps 1, 2, and 3 of the United Stated Licensure Examination (USMLE). However, subsets of the total 839,710 participants included in the database were used for various analyses and the testing of a latent variable path model (LVPA). A number of preliminary descriptive and inferential techniques were used to confirm previous hypotheses and stated relationships amongst the variables of interest to the present study. Through development and testing of a latent variable path model, three latent variables measured by UGPA (general achievement), subscales of the MCAT (aptitude for medicine), and Steps 1, 2, and 3 of the USMLE (competence in medicine) were identified which resulted in a comparative fit index = .932 of the model to a large sample (n = 20,714). In a confirmatory latent variable path model we were able to identify theoretical constructs, aptitude for medicine, general achievement, and competence in medicine and their interrelationships. These are distinct but interrelated latent variables.

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“…However, to include as much evidence as possible, and to make long-term predictions, studies using previous versions of the MCAT characteristics. 11,12 To organize the uGPA and MCAT validity evidence, outcome coefficients and study characteristics were tabled sequentially according to the number of years between admission to medical school and the occurrence of the outcome variable. Hence, when entering data into the summary tables, coefficients that examined performance during the early years of medical school were listed first in the sequence.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%