Preliminary Forecasting of Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides in the Wildfire Burned Areas of Western Greece

Abstract

A new methodology for shallow landslide forecasting in wildfire burned areas is proposed by estimating the annual probability of rainfall threshold exceedance. For this purpose, extensive geological fieldwork was carried out in 122 landslides, which have been periodically activated in Western Greece, after the devastating wildfires that occurred in August 2007 and burned large areas in several parts of Western Greece. In addition, daily rainfall data covering more than 40 years has been collected and statistically processed to estimate the exceedance probability of the rainfall threshold above which these landslides are activated. The objectives of this study are to quantify the magnitude and duration of rainfall above which landslides in burned areas are activated, as well as to introduce a novel methodology on rainfall-induced landslide forecasting. It has been concluded that rainfall-induced landslide annual exceedance probability in the burned areas is higher when cumulative rainfall duration ranges from 6 to 9 days with local differences due to the prevailing geological conditions and landscape characteristics. The proposed methodology can be used as a basis for landslide forecasting in wildfire-affected areas, especially when triggered by rainfall, and can be further developed as a tool for preliminary landslide hazard assessment.

Geo-Hydrological Events and Temporal Trends in CAPE and TCWV over the Main Cities Facing the Mediterranean Sea in the Period 1979–2018

“…In fact, it contains only large events that caused extensive damage and even casualties. Including rain-triggered shallow landslides could change this result, as their incidence has been frequent in some areas as testified by many authors [52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61] but obtaining homogeneous and precise data for the whole Mediterranean area for the whole period is quite difficult.…”

Predisposing Factors for Shallow Landslides in Alpine and Hilly/Apennines Environments: A Case Study from Piemonte, Italy

“…In the investigated area, wildfire occurrence also plays a remarkable role in modifying the slopes' surficial characteristics. The effect of wildfires on slope stability is highlighted by many authors [19][20][21][22]. All cited works draw attention to the need for integrating post-fire hazard into shallow landslide prediction systems and, in broader terms, into risk mitigation studies.…”

A Scientometric Analysis of Predicting Methods for Identifying the Environmental Risks Caused by Landslides

“…Statistical analysis was performed on data sets gathered over almost a century [96]. At the basin level, the distribution of landslide hazard was addressed and compared to rainfall in order to improve knowledge of the two variables and to analyze their temporal variations, as well as their interdependencies [97]. Pomarico is a tiny village in Basilicata, southern Italy, that has a history of landslides [96,98].…”