Preference Voting Under PR-STV 1948â2011

Debates about electoral reform revolve around giving voters more choice. Consequently, reformers often favor adopting the single transferable vote, a candidate-based system that allows voters to rank order candidates. Nonetheless, studies about whether lower preferences (transfers) influence STV election outcomes remain scant. To address this gap, our comparative multivariate approach tests transfers’ impact on election results in Ireland, Malta, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. We find that, on average, transfers are pivotal in the election of about one in 10 elected candidates. Hence, their impact is the exception rather than the norm. We show that when lower preferences are decisive at the candidate level, they benefit smaller and moderate parties and non-incumbents and, in Malta and Ireland, female candidates. Our results have implications for understanding the extent to which multiple preferences influence election outcomes and for debates on electoral reform.

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“…Elsewhere, research focuses on what transfers tell us about voters' loyalty to a party (e.g. Sinnott and McBride, 2011).…”

Section: Preference Voting: State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is also the surplus/bundle problem, which relates to the selection of papers for surplus vote (e.g. Farrell and McAllister, 2003;Sinnott and McBride, 2011). Meanwhile, taking a broader conception of preference voting, Renwick and Pilet (2016, Chp.…”

Section: Preference Voting: State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%