Predictors of Recurrence after a First Unprovoked Seizure in Childhood: A Prospective Study

Abstract

The second part of the revised definition of epilepsy by ILAE in 2014 allows a condition to be considered epilepsy after one seizure if there is a high risk of having another seizure; if the risk factor is not precisely be known we have to wait for another seizure. This definition necessitates search for probable risk factors. We aimed this study to assess the recurrence rate and associated risk factors for recurrences after a first unprovoked seizure in children within two years of first attack. This prospective study was conducted on in Banglabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU) from June 2016 to December 2018. Among 137 children finally 120 children aged between1 month to 14 years after a first seizure were followed up for 2 years. Diagnosis of seizure was confirmed on the basis of diagnostic criteria and none of the children was treated by any antiepileptic drugs after first episode. Overall recurrence rate within 2 years of follow up was 38%. Majority of recurrence (65%) observed within 6-10 months of initial seizure. Significant risk factors were an abnormal EEG finding (p=<0.001), focal seizure (p=<0.001), seizure at sleep (p=0.001) and initial presentation with status epilepticus (p=0.001). Abnormal neuroimage findings were also associated with seizure recurrence, but it was not statistically significant. Age of the patients and underlying motor and cognitive delay was not a significant risk factor for recurrence. A great percentage of first seizure didn’t show recurrence but there are so many factors can determine the possibilities of recurrence, early identification of risk factors specially the focal pattern of seizure, seizure in sleep, status epilepticus and abnormal electrophysiology are the best predictive factors of recurrence, so identifying the high risk group of recurrence helps to initiate early antiepileptic drug and prevent further recurrence.