Predictors of Death in Severe COVID-19 Patients at Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

Maru, Endalkachew H.; Leulseged, Tigist Workneh; Hassen, Ishmael S.; Zewde, Wuletaw C.; Chamesew, Nigat W.; Abebe, Daniel S.; Jagema, Tariku B.; Bayisa, Abdi B.; Gezahegn, Mesfin A.; Tefera, Oli S.; Shiferaw, Wondmagegn G.; Admasu, Teketel T.

doi:10.1101/2020.10.07.20205575

Cited by 6 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…This could be because shortness of breath and decreased SPO2 are manifestations of diseased lung with diminished capacity, which can be explained also by the high affinity of the SARS-COV-2 virus to attack the lung. Shortness of breath is also found to be associated with increased odds of death and also prolonged oxygen requirement among severe COVID-19 patients in other studies conducted in our Center 24,26 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

“…The effect of concomitant comorbid illness on disease progression is also reported to be the same in other studies 27-30 . Patients with diabetes mellitus were also found to increased likelihood of having death outcome, developing symptomatic disease and more severe disease category in studies conducted in our center 23,24,31 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 64%

“…Patients with diabetes mellitus were also found to increased likelihood of having death outcome, developing symptomatic disease and more severe disease category in studies conducted in our center 23,24,31 .…”

Section: Socio-demographic Comorbid Illness and Vital Sign Related Vmentioning

confidence: 71%

“…On the other hand, another study in the Center shows that having fever is associated with development of a more severe disease. This could be because having fever is an implication of competent body defense system that can lead to better outcome from the disease even though it could be associated with development of a more severe disease category 23,24 .…”

Section: Socio-demographic Comorbid Illness and Vital Sign Related Vmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characteristics and outcome profile of Hospitalized African COVID-19 patients: The Ethiopian Context

Leulseged

et al. 2020

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BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic seems to have a different picture in Africa; the first case was identified in the continent after it has already caused a significant loss to the rest of the world and the reported number of cases and mortality rate has been low. Understanding the characteristics and outcome of the pandemicin the African setup is therefore crucial.AimTo assess the characteristics and outcome of COVID-19 patients and to identify determinants of the disease outcome among patients admitted to Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted among 1345 consecutively admitted RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 patients from July to September, 2020. Frequency tables, KM plots, median survival times and Log-rank test were used to describe the data and compare survival distribution between groups. Cox proportional hazard survival model was used to identify determinants of time to clinical improvement and the independent variables, where adjusted hazard ratio, P-value and 95% CI for adjusted hazard ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of results. Binary logistic regression model was used to assess the presence of a statistically significant association between disease outcome and the independent variables, where adjusted odds ratio, P-value and 95% CI for adjusted odds ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of resultsResultsAmong the study population, 71 (5.3%) died, 72 (5.4%) were transferred and the rest 1202 (89.4%) were clinically improved. The median time to clinical improvement was 14 days. On the multivariable Cox proportional hazard model; temperature (AHR= 1.135, 95% CI= 1.011, 1.274, p-value=0.032), COVID-19 severity (AHR= 0.660, 95% CI= 0.501, 0.869, p-value=0.003), and cough (AHR= 0.705, 95% CI= 0.519, 0.959, p-value=0.026) were found to be significant determinants of time to clinical improvement. On the binary logistic regression, the following factors were found to be significantly associated with disease outcome; SPO2 (AOR= 0.302, 95% CI= 0.193, 0.474, p-value=0.0001), shortness of breath (AOR= 0.354, 95% CI= 0.213, 0.590, p-value=0.0001) and diabetes mellitus (AOR= 0.549, 95% CI= 0.337, 0.894, p-value=0.016).ConclusionsThe average duration of time to clinical improvement was 14 days and 89.4 % of the patients achieved clinical improvement. The mortality rate of the studied population is lower than reports from other countries including those in Africa. Having severe COVID-19 disease severity and presenting with cough were found to be associated with delayed clinical improvement of the disease. On the other hand, being hyperthermic is associated with shorter disease duration (faster time to clinical improvement). In addition, lower oxygen saturation and subjective complaint of shortness of breath and being diabetic were associated with unfavorable disease outcome. Therefore, patients with these factors should be followed cautiously for a better outcome.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Section: Socio-demographic Comorbid Illness and Vital Sign Related Vmentioning

confidence: 71%

Section: Socio-demographic Comorbid Illness and Vital Sign Related Vmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characteristics and outcome profile of Hospitalized African COVID-19 patients: The Ethiopian Context

Leulseged

et al. 2020

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“…Almost two third (63.3%) of the participants were females unlike the pediatric studies conducted in other countries where the majority of infected children are males 3,4 . In addition, researches conducted among adults in our center also showed a contrasting pattern where the majority of infected are males 18-23 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

COVID-19 in Hospitalized Ethiopian Children: Characteristics and Outcome Profile

Leulseged

et al. 2020

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Background: Considering the number of people affected and the burden to the health care system due to the Coronavirus pandemic, there is still a gap in understanding the disease better leaving a space for new evidence to be filled by researchers. This scarcity of evidence is observed especially among children with the virus. Understanding the disease pattern and its effect among children is vital in providing timely and targeted intervention. Aim: To assess the characteristics and outcome profile of 115 RT-PCR confirmed children with COVID-19, and to determine the presence of significant difference in disease severity and survival distribution between groups among children admitted to Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted among 90 consecutively admitted eligible RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 children from end of June to mid September, 2020. Frequency tables, KM plots, median survival times and Log-rank test were used to describe the data and compare survival distribution between groups. A chi-square test/ Fischer exact test were used to determine the presence of a significant difference between the independent variables and disease severity. A statistically significant difference was detected for variables with a P-value of ≤ 0.05. Survival experience of different groups was compared using KM survival curves. Log-rank test was used to assess the presence of significant difference among survival distributions of groups for equality where a statistically significant difference in survival distribution between groups was detected for variables with a P-value of ≤ 0.05. Results: From the 90 children, 67 (74.4%) achieved clinical improvement and 23 (25.6%) were censored. There was no death. The median time to clinical improvement was 14 days. The median age of the participants was 15 years and 63.3% of the participants were females. The commonest reported route of disease transmission was through close contact with a diagnosed person (45.6%). Only three (3.3%) had a history of pre-existing comorbid illness. More than a quarter (26.7%) had one or more symptoms at admission, the commonest being cough (22.2%). Seventy three (81.1%) of the patients had mild COVID-19 at admission and the rest (18.9%) had moderate disease. On the chi-square and Fischers exact test, children with one or more symptom at presentation (73.3% Vs 36.7%, p-value= 0.0001), fever (40.0 % Vs 60.0%, p-value=0.045), cough (20.0 % Vs 80.0%, p-value=0.0001), sore throat (44.4 % Vs 55.6%, p-value=0.011), and headache (44.4 % Vs 55.6%, p-value=0.011) were more likely to develop moderate COVID-19. On the log rank test, a significant difference in survival between groups was observed only for sex. A significantly longer time was needed for female patients to achieve clinical improvement compared to male patients (15 days Vs 14 days, p-value= 0.042). Conclusions: The average duration of time to clinical improvement was 14 days and 74.4% achieved clinical improvement. There was no death during the observation period. The pediatric patients seemed to have a milder disease presentation and a favorable outcome compared to other countries report and also the adult pattern observed in our country. Having particular symptom groups is associated with the development of moderate COVID-19. Being female seemed to delay the time to clinical improvement. Further multicenter study with a large sample size is recommended to reach at a better conclusion.

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Predictors of Mortality Among Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Ethiopia

Ayana¹,

Merga²,

Birhanu³

et al. 2021

IDR

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Background The very unprecedented virus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has continued causing catastrophes in economy and loss of human lives. Despite countries’ urgent and resilient public health actions against the COVID-19 pandemic, the disease is causing a large number of deaths. However, predictors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients have not been well investigated in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the predictors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients at a tertiary care hospital in Ethiopia. Methods A hospital-based retrospective cohort design study was implemented among hospitalized COVID-19 patients at a tertiary care hospital in Harar, Ethiopia from March 20 to August 20, 2021. Data of 531 admitted patients were entered using Epi-data 3.1 and exported to STATA 14.2 for analysis. Binary logistic regression was used to identify significant predictors of outcome variables with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval. Results Of the total 531 study participants, 101 deaths occurred. The mortality rate was 16.2 per 1000 person-days of observation with median survival time of 44 days with IQR [28, 74]. Smoking history [AOR=2.55, 95% CI (1.15, 5.65)], alcohol history [AOR=2.3, 95% CI (1.06, 4.97)], comorbidities [AOR=2.95, 95% CI (1.26, 6.91)], and increasing oxygen saturation [AOR=0.92, 95% CI (0.89, 0.95)], and lymphocyte count [AOR=0.90, 95% CI (0.88, 0.97)] were independent significant predictors of death from Covid-19. Conclusion The incidence of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients was found to be high. Devising individual, tailored management for patients with “risk” behaviors, comorbid conditions, and poor prognostic markers such as lymphopenia and low oxygen saturation, may reduce the incidence of death among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

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Predictors of Death in Severe COVID-19 Patients at Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

Cited by 6 publications

References 19 publications

Characteristics and outcome profile of Hospitalized African COVID-19 patients: The Ethiopian Context

Characteristics and outcome profile of Hospitalized African COVID-19 patients: The Ethiopian Context

COVID-19 in Hospitalized Ethiopian Children: Characteristics and Outcome Profile

Predictors of Mortality Among Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Ethiopia

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