Predictive Validity and Accuracy of Oral Reading Fluency for English Learners

Abstract

The predictive validity and accuracy of an oral reading fluency (ORF) measure for a statewide assessment in English language arts was examined for second-grade native English speakers (NESs) and English learners (ELs) with varying levels of English proficiency. In addition to comparing ELs with native English speakers, the impact of English proficiency was examined among ELs. The results suggest that the predictive validity of ORF is stronger for native English speakers than for ELs. ORF scores for ELs with intermediate English proficiency were less correlated to the state assessment than for other EL subgroups. Similarly, the predictive accuracy of ORF was found to vary by English proficiency. Results suggest that ELs should not be treated as a homogeneous group and that cut scores should be used with caution. KeywordsEnglish learners, reading screening, curriculum-based measurement, large-scale assessmentReading is a critical foundational skill needed for success in school and society. Yet, the National Assessment of Educational Progress indicates that more than 50% of fourth graders are not proficient in reading (National Center for Education Statistics, 2011). The percentage of ethnic minorities in the U.S. student population has increased from 22% to 35% between 1985 and 2010. Many of these students are also English Learners (ELs), a majority of whom speak Spanish as their native language (National Center for Education Statistics, 2011). English proficiency poses an additional challenge for ELs who are learning to read in English. Considering the above issues, it is important for educators to have adequate screening tools to identify students, both native English speakers (NESs) and ELs, who are at risk for reading difficulties.With the focus on accountability and high-stakes state assessment in the current educational climate, numerous studies have examined the use of curriculum-based measures of oral reading fluency (ORF) as screeners to predict reading performance on high-stakes state assessments. In a recent meta-analysis, Reschly, Busch, Betts, Deno, and Long (2009) found that ORF exhibited an average correlation of .65 with state assessments, which led them to suggest that ORF was a relatively adequate predictor of future reading performance. Aside from this meta-analysis,

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