Predictive Understanding of the Oceans' Wind-Driven Circulation on Interdecadal Time Scales

Abstract

We provide here the final report corresponding to the physical part of this project. This part was directed by the P.I., Michael Ghil, at UCLA. The P.I. and collaborators, at UCLA and in France, have improved their understanding of mid-latitude atmospheric phenomena influenced by thermal oceanic fronts. They have also deepened the understanding of decadal variability of the oceans' double-gyre circulation. Prof. Roger Temam at Indiana University directed the mathematical part of the project, and the final report for this part was submitted in 2007. The physical part suffered in its third year from under-performance of a post-doc and thus required a no-cost extension. The results during the fourth and final year were more than satisfactory, as reported below. The final result is an emerging theory of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its downstream effects over Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East.