Predictive Processing within Music Form: Analysis of Uncertainty and Surprise in Different Sections of Sonata Form

Abstract

Predictive coding has emerged as a key framework for analyzing music listeners’ behavior and experiences. However, the simplicity of stimuli in empirical research frequently fails to reflect the multifaceted complexity of real-world music, potentially limiting the applicability of the predictive coding model within the broader sphere of music perception. To address this shortcoming, this study explores how principles of predictive processing manifest across different sections of sonata form. The analysis suggests that the tonal uncertainty encountered at the start of Beethoven's Symphony No. 1 may lead listeners to activate diverse hidden states, thereby enriching their listening experience. Sequential modulations in the development section prompt listeners to frequently revise their internal model of tonality, while concurrently reinforcing melodic predictability through consistent repetition of motifs/phrases. Conversely, the transitions within the exposition and recapitulation, as well as the retransition within the development, display unexpected changes in rhythm, dynamics, texture, timbre, melodic contour, motif, and figuration against a relatively predictable harmonic background. Such interactions between multiple musical aspects embody a compositional principle: balancing uncertainty or surprise in some musical aspects with predictability in others to enhance listeners’ engagement. By examining how this balancing principle unfolds in various sections of sonata form, this study offers fresh insights into the integration of large-scale structural considerations with predictive processing in music cognition.