Predictive Analysis of Water-Level Changes in Lake Baikal: Social, Economic, and Environmental Impacts

Abstract

For many years, scientists, the public, as well as the population of coastal settlements have been concerned about the water level in Baikal, as its fluctuations lead to various socio-economic and environmental problems. In this regard, to predict the water level in Baikal, the task of building mathematical models of the dependence of the level on the factors that influence its importance is very relevant. The aim of this work is to construct such a mathematical model using econometric research methods. Six econometric models were built in the analysis. After testing them for adequacy, the author chose a polynomial model based on which point and interval forecasts were built. The average error of the approximation obtained (the average deviation of the predicted water level from the actual) is 0,03 % which indicates a high accuracy of the selected model. The work also discusses possible (some of the already existing) socio-economic and environmental problems of two fishing areas — the Barguzinsky Bay and the Gulf of Debacle. This study is an exploratory research and has practical value. In the future, the author plans to improve the quality of the model by increasing possible factors that influence changes in the level of Lake Baikal.