Predictive Analyses of Traffic Level in the City of Barcelona: From ARIMA to eXtreme Gradient Boosting

Abstract

This study delves into the intricate dynamics of urban mobility, a pivotal aspect for policymakers, businesses, and communities alike. By deciphering patterns of movement within a city, stakeholders can craft targeted interventions to mitigate traffic congestion peaks, optimizing both resource allocation and individual travel routes. Focused on Barcelona, Spain, this paper draws on data sourced from the city council’s open data service. Through a blend of exploratory analysis, visualization techniques, and modeling methodologies—including time series analysis and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm—the research endeavors to forecast traffic conditions. Additionally, a study of variable importance is carried out, and Shapley Additive Explanations are applied to enhance the interpretability of model outputs. Findings underscore the limitations of traditional forecasting methods in capturing the nuanced spatial and temporal dependencies present in traffic flows, particularly over medium- to long-term horizons. However, the XGBoost model demonstrates robust performance, with the area under ROC curves consistently exceeding 80%, indicating its efficacy in handling non-linear traffic data variables.