Predictions of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Landscape Pattern Analysis in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, China

Wang, Shanshan; Zuo, Qiting; Zhou, Kefa; Wang, Jinlin; Wang, Wei

doi:10.3390/land12051093

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Between 2005 and 2010, the decreasing area of arboreal forest ecosystems was primarily due to the expansion of shrubbery ecosystems, particularly in the upper and middle reaches of the Tarim River, the upper reaches of the Hotan River, and the upper reaches of the Keriya River. Previous studies (Jiang et al, 2015;Wang et al, 2023aWang et al, , 2023b [4,45,46] also reported grasslands as the dominant ecosystem in other desert riparian ecosystems, and the decline in grassland area is linked to increasing farmland; the previous findings align with the findings of the present research. Population growth and the expansion of arable lands contribute to the decrease in grasslands to varying degrees (Chang et al, 2022) [47].…”

Section: Spatial-temporal Lucc Variation Of Desert Riparian Ecosystemssupporting

confidence: 91%

Increased Humidity Improved Desert Riparian Ecosystems in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China, from 1990 to 2020

Guo,

Zhu,

Tang

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Land use and land cover change (LULCC), along with the conversion of natural ecosystem cover into farmland, poses significant ecological challenges for desert riparian ecosystems. The Tarim River Basin (TRB), home to the world’s largest and most densely distributed and well-preserved desert riparian ecosystem, remains exceptionally susceptible to climate change. However, our understanding of the role of climatic factors (mean annual temperature (MAT); mean temperature during the warmest month (MWMT); relative humidity in September, October, and November (RH_SON); and the annual heat–moisture index (AHM)) in driving pattern changes in these ecosystems remains limited. To address this gap, we employed a transfer matrix approach coupled with geographically weighted regression models to conduct an extensive analysis of LULCC trends and their driving factors within the TRB from 1990 to 2020. The 30-year dataset on LULCC provided invaluable insights, revealing that the proliferation of farmland and shrubberies has precipitated the decline of arbor forests and grassland expanses. Furthermore, this expansion of farmland and shrubberies has resulted in heightened ecosystem fragmentation, particularly notable between 2005 and 2010. Our assessment indicates that artificial ecosystems are gradually transitioning back into natural states, encompassing 8.24% of the total area, chiefly attributed to the expanding shrubbery regions. Additionally, in-depth scrutiny of the impacts of climatic factors on ecosystem structure unveiled that moisture exerts the most pronounced influence on ecosystem patterns, followed by air moisture content during the growing season, while temperature exerts a relatively lesser impact. Overall, this study contributes to the realization of SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 15 (Life on Land) by informing conservation efforts and sustainable land management practices in dryland desert riparian ecosystems.

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Section: Spatial-temporal Lucc Variation Of Desert Riparian Ecosystemssupporting

confidence: 91%

Increased Humidity Improved Desert Riparian Ecosystems in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China, from 1990 to 2020

Guo,

Zhu,

Tang

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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“…With the frequent transformation between land-use types in the TRB [34], the intensity of water resources development increased, resulting in uneven distribution of water resources and problems such as water poverty in some parts of the region [35,36]. There was a significant increase in terrestrial water reserves in the Kumukuli Basin, but a significant decrease in the Weigangkuche River Basin.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanism of Vegetation Greenness Change and Its Correlation with Terrestrial Water Storage in the Tarim River Basin

Xia,

Xue,

Wang

et al. 2024

Land

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The response of dryland vegetation to climate change is particularly sensitive in the context of global climate change. This paper analyzes the characteristics of spatial and temporal dynamics of vegetation cover in the Tarim River Basin, China, and its driving factors in order to investigate the response of vegetation growth to water storage changes in the basin. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), the GRACE gravity satellite, and meteorological data from 2002 to 2022 are used to decipher the characteristics of the response of water storage changes to vegetation changes, which is of great significance to the realization of regional ecological development and sustainable development. The results of the study show the following: (1) The vegetation in the Tarim River Basin has an overall increasing trend, which is mainly distributed in the Aksu Basin and the Weigangkuche River Basin and is spatially distributed in the form of a ring. (2) Vegetation distribution greatly improved during the 20-year study period, dominated by high-cover vegetation, with a change rate of 200.36%. Additionally, vegetation changes are centered on the watersheds and expand to the surrounding area, with a clear increase in vegetation in the Kumukuri Basin. Areas with a vegetation Hurst index of <0.5 account for 63.27% of the study area, and the areas with a continuous decrease were mainly located in the outer contour area of the Tarim River and Kumu Kuri Basins. (3) There are obvious spatial differences in the correlation between EVI and temperature and precipitation elements. The proportion of areas with positive correlation with temperature within the study area is 64.67%. EVI tends to be consistent with the direction of migration of the center of gravity of the population and GDP, and the areas with positive correlation between vegetation and terrestrial water reserves are mainly distributed in the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains, with an area proportion of about 50.513%. The Kumukuli Basin also shows significantly positive correlation.

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“…After the rapid urbanization and industrialization in the past two decades, China's urban expansion and its associated urban-rural land use changes have been remarkable, with the phenomenon of farmland transition and farmland loss well documented [12][13][14][15]. Studies have focused on the relationship between farmland gain and loss in terms of quantity, quality, yield, and ecological effects under the dual effect of farmland protection and construction land expansion [16,17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Farmland Dynamics and Its Grain Production Efficiency and Ecological Security in China’s Major Grain-Producing Regions between 2000 and 2020

Zhou

et al. 2023

Land

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Understanding the land use/cover changes associated with agricultural production is essential for food security in increasingly urbanizing areas. Such studies have been widely conducted in different regions of China; yet, its major grain-producing regions (MGPRs) remain less studied. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted analyses of the land use conversion matrix, spatial hot spots, decoupling, and index evaluation from a spatiotemporal perspective, to quantify the MGPRs’ farmland changes and its grain production efficiency and ecological security during 2000–2020. The results showed the following: (1) Farmland in the MGPRs experienced a net decline of 2.54 × 104 km2, with significant spatial heterogeneity in the area, extent, and speed of loss/gain. (2) Farmland gain came from mostly forest, grassland, and unused land, with hotspots in northeastern China, while farmland loss increasingly changed to construction lands, with hotspots covering east-central China and in the suburbs surrounding capital cities. (3) Grain production in the MGPRs increased by 1.6 times in the past 20 years, via its strong decoupling from farmland quantity in especially central-eastern China. (4) Land ecological security in the MGPRs was less secure but has been improving with non-homogeneous regional differences, while it demonstrated a spatial pattern of “higher security in the north–south and lower in the middle”. Our findings suggested that China’s MGPRs would continue to lose farmland and China’s food security should require a sustainable decoupling of grain production and farmland quantity while maintaining ecological security. This study has significant policy implications for farmland conservation in China’s MGPRs, as well as highlighting the landscape sustainability opportunities of urbanization-associated farmland loss in densely populated human–environment systems in general.

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Predictions of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Landscape Pattern Analysis in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, China

Cited by 7 publications

References 44 publications

Increased Humidity Improved Desert Riparian Ecosystems in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China, from 1990 to 2020

Increased Humidity Improved Desert Riparian Ecosystems in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China, from 1990 to 2020

Mechanism of Vegetation Greenness Change and Its Correlation with Terrestrial Water Storage in the Tarim River Basin

Farmland Dynamics and Its Grain Production Efficiency and Ecological Security in China’s Major Grain-Producing Regions between 2000 and 2020

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