Prediction of velocities for a range of streamflow conditions in Pennsylvania

Abstract

A regression equation that is used nationwide to predict traveltime in streams during periods of low and moderate flow was developed by H.E. Jobson in 1996. Because none of the data used in the development of the equation were from streams in Pennsylvania, velocities for low and moderate flows predicted by the equation were compared to velocities measured during time-of-travel studies on the Susquehanna, Delaware, and Lehigh Rivers. Although these comparisons showed good agreement, a similar comparison using velocities for higher flows indicated an overestimate by this regression equation. Because of the need for a method of computing traveltimes for periods of high flows, a new regression equation was developed using data from three sources: (1) time-of-travel studies conducted at low and moderate flow, (2) slopearea measurements of flood flows, and (3) velocities of the 100-year floodway as reported in various flood-insurance studies. The new regression equation can be used for predicting velocities associated with flows up to the 100-year flood for Pennsylvania streams. It has standard errors of estimate of 0.18 feet per second, 0.37 feet per second; and 0.31 feet per second, for time-of-travel studies in the Susquehanna, Delaware, and Lehigh Rivers, respectively. The standard error of estimate is 1.71 feet per second for velocities determined from the slope-area measurements and 1.22 feet per second for velocities determined from the flood-insurance studies.